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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 37.1x - 41.0x | 39.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.2x - 6.8x | 6.5x |
| Fair Value | $19.95 - $21.86 | $20.91 |
| Upside | -21.8% - -14.3% | -18.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Delta Air Lines, Inc. | DAL | NYSE:DAL |
| Allegiant Travel Company | ALGT | NasdaqGS:ALGT |
| Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. | SNCY | NasdaqGS:SNCY |
| Copa Holdings, S.A. | CPA | NYSE:CPA |
| Alaska Air Group, Inc. | ALK | NYSE:ALK |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | LUV | NYSE:LUV |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DAL | ALGT | SNCY | CPA | ALK | LUV | ||
| NYSE:DAL | NasdaqGS:ALGT | NasdaqGS:SNCY | NYSE:CPA | NYSE:ALK | NYSE:LUV | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.4% | -23.5% | 4.5% | 11.6% | -3.7% | -37.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 9.1% | 38.9% | 73.1% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.3% | -62.8% | -16.9% | -6.7% | 8.7% | -67.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -5.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | -6.4% | -9.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.5% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 21.9% | 7.6% | 1.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.3% | 3.7% | 9.9% | 21.9% | 7.6% | 1.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 0.85x | 0.83x | 1.21x | 0.81x | 0.51x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 8.0x | 4.4x | 3.9x | 6.6x | 8.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 22.8x | 8.4x | 5.5x | 10.7x | 49.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.5x | 8.4x | 22.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -8.6x | 10.9x | 49.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 37.1x | 39.0x | 41.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 285 | 285 | 285 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,564 | 11,119 | 11,675 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,034 | 1,034 | 1,034 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,598 | 12,153 | 12,709 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 573.9 | 573.9 | 573.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 20.21 | 21.18 | 22.15 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.21 | 21.18 | 22.15 | 25.52 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.8% | -17.0% | -13.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DAL | ALGT | SNCY | CPA | ALK | LUV | |
| Enterprise Value | 43,703 | 2,125 | 889 | 4,174 | 9,575 | 13,612 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,711 | 781 | 187 | 1,199 | 2,475 | 8,725 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,819 | 52 | 0 | 249 | 0 | 367 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,380) | (2,150) | (619) | (2,001) | (6,393) | (8,058) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 26,853 | 809 | 457 | 3,622 | 5,657 | 14,646 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 648.6 | 17.7 | 52.5 | 41.3 | 122.7 | 573.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 41.40 | 45.61 | 8.70 | 87.71 | 46.11 | 25.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 41.40 | 45.61 | 8.70 | 87.71 | 46.11 | 25.52 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |