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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 39.6x - 43.8x | 41.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 24.8x - 27.4x | 26.1x |
| Fair Value | $1,189 - $1,324 | $1,256 |
| Upside | -30.6% - -22.7% | -26.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Riskified Ltd. | RSKD | NYSE:RSKD |
| nCino, Inc. | NCNO | NasdaqGS:NCNO |
| Adobe Inc. | ADBE | NasdaqGS:ADBE |
| NCR Voyix Corporation | VYX | NYSE:VYX |
| Oracle Corporation | ORCL | NYSE:ORCL |
| Fair Isaac Corporation | FICO | NYSE:FICO |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| RSKD | NCNO | ADBE | VYX | ORCL | FICO | ||
| NYSE:RSKD | NasdaqGS:NCNO | NasdaqGS:ADBE | NYSE:VYX | NYSE:ORCL | NYSE:FICO | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 19.1% | -32.7% | 2.4% | 23.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 10.5% | -4.9% | 0.2% | 21.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 37.9% | 83.5% | 15.8% | 7200.0% | 14.6% | 16.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -24.1% | -15.1% | 34.9% | 3.7% | 33.6% | 36.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -25.8% | -7.0% | 34.3% | 0.0% | 27.4% | 42.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -14.6% | -1.0% | 36.4% | 2.6% | 29.8% | 42.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.6% | -1.0% | 36.6% | 2.6% | 31.4% | 42.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.01x | 4.85x | 6.71x | 0.74x | 8.10x | 24.29x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -7.5x | 85.1x | 17.1x | 9.1x | 19.7x | 55.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -7.0x | -475.0x | 18.3x | 28.8x | 25.7x | 56.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -475.0x | 18.3x | 28.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 23.1x | 38.4x | 70.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 39.6x | 41.7x | 43.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 762 | 762 | 762 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 30,196 | 31,785 | 33,374 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,258) | (2,258) | (2,258) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 27,938 | 29,528 | 31,117 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,144.16 | 1,209.24 | 1,274.33 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,144.16 | 1,209.24 | 1,274.33 | 1,713.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -33.2% | -29.4% | -25.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | RSKD | NCNO | ADBE | VYX | ORCL | FICO | |
| Enterprise Value | 319 | 2,644 | 144,298 | 2,101 | 446,470 | 44,091 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 376 | 121 | 7,436 | 724 | 17,823 | 184 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 2,000 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (28) | (237) | (6,563) | (1,400) | (109,176) | (2,442) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (8) | 0 | 2 | (531) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (276) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 668 | 2,529 | 145,206 | 1,151 | 356,586 | 41,833 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 161.7 | 116.4 | 426.2 | 138.9 | 2,804.2 | 24.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.13 | 21.72 | 340.70 | 8.29 | 127.16 | 1,713.20 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.13 | 21.72 | 340.70 | 8.29 | 127.16 | 1,713.20 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |