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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.6x - 7.3x | 7.0x |
| Fair Value | $22.85 - $27.74 | $25.29 |
| Upside | 49.0% - 80.8% | 64.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | NasdaqGS:TSCO |
| Shoe Carnival, Inc. | SCVL | NasdaqGS:SCVL |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | DKS | NYSE:DKS |
| Designer Brands Inc. | DBI | NYSE:DBI |
| Genesco Inc. | GCO | NYSE:GCO |
| Caleres, Inc. | CAL | NYSE:CAL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TSCO | SCVL | DKS | DBI | GCO | CAL | ||
| NasdaqGS:TSCO | NasdaqGS:SCVL | NYSE:DKS | NYSE:DBI | NYSE:GCO | NYSE:CAL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.3% | 11.1% | 20.2% | -14.4% | -13.9% | 1.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.7% | -19.1% | -7.4% | -27.7% | -28.6% | -9.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.0% | -0.1% | 8.6% | -22.4% | 5.4% | -16.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.7% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.9% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.8% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.18x | 0.61x | 1.36x | 0.44x | 0.29x | 0.50x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.0x | 6.0x | 9.8x | 12.8x | 9.8x | 6.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.4x | 8.1x | 12.4x | 33.2x | 40.6x | 8.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 9.8x | 17.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 7.1x | 62.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 213 | 213 | 213 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,654 | 1,741 | 1,828 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (804) | (804) | (804) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 850 | 937 | 1,024 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 34.1 | 34.1 | 34.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 24.94 | 27.49 | 30.05 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 24.94 | 27.49 | 30.05 | 15.34 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 62.6% | 79.2% | 95.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TSCO | SCVL | DKS | DBI | GCO | CAL | |
| Enterprise Value | 32,297 | 717 | 17,759 | 1,326 | 667 | 1,327 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 232 | 123 | 1,690 | 45 | 34 | 30 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,762) | (368) | (4,488) | (1,286) | (485) | (827) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (3) | 0 | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1) | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 26,767 | 472 | 14,961 | 139 | 215 | 523 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 531.6 | 27.2 | 79.9 | 48.0 | 11.0 | 34.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 50.35 | 17.36 | 187.35 | 2.89 | 19.48 | 15.34 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 50.35 | 17.36 | 187.35 | 2.89 | 19.48 | 15.34 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |