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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 13.2x - 14.6x | 13.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 21.7x - 24.0x | 22.9x |
| Fair Value | ¥648.94 - ¥710.54 | ¥679.74 |
| Upside | 6.2% - 16.3% | 11.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hachi-Ban Co., Ltd. | 9950 | TSE:9950 |
| Joyfull Co., Ltd. | 9942 | FKSE:9942 |
| Nippon Ski Resort Development Co.,Ltd. | 6040 | TSE:6040 |
| DYNAM JAPAN HOLDINGS Co., Ltd. | 6889 | SEHK:6889 |
| AEON Fantasy Co.,LTD. | 4343 | TSE:4343 |
| JB Eleven Co., Ltd. | 3066 | NSE:3066 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9950 | 9942 | 6040 | 6889 | 4343 | 3066 | ||
| TSE:9950 | FKSE:9942 | TSE:6040 | SEHK:6889 | TSE:4343 | NSE:3066 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -4.1% | 18.7% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 1.5% | 3.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 147.1% | 69.2% | 28.5% | 40.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -20.8% | 21.6% | 39.7% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 65.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.7% | 0.5% | 17.3% | 30.0% | 14.1% | 2.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 5.3% | 23.8% | 38.2% | 16.7% | -0.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 8.6% | 27.6% | 43.5% | 17.3% | 5.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.2% | 8.9% | 29.7% | 44.9% | 17.3% | 5.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 0.48x | 2.19x | 1.50x | 0.80x | 0.65x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.9x | 5.4x | 7.4x | 3.3x | 4.6x | 11.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 38.1x | 7.6x | 10.5x | 16.8x | 16.0x | 34.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 5.4x | 21.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.8x | 33.1x | 722.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.2x | 13.9x | 14.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 445 | 445 | 445 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,879 | 6,189 | 6,498 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 601 | 601 | 601 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,480 | 6,790 | 7,099 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 686.63 | 719.42 | 752.21 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 686.63 | 719.42 | 752.21 | 611.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 12.4% | 17.7% | 23.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9950 | 9942 | 6040 | 6889 | 4343 | 3066 | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,216 | 32,452 | 20,179 | 193,683 | 69,538 | 5,166 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 913 | 2,668 | 1,996 | 38,916 | 6,167 | 1,696 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 650 | 4,697 | 120 | 1,588 | 5,733 | 910 | |
| (-) Debt | (681) | (6,257) | (3,176) | (192,914) | (34,842) | (2,005) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (94) | (378) | (3) | (236) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 10,098 | 33,466 | 18,741 | 41,270 | 46,360 | 5,767 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2.9 | 30.9 | 45.7 | 696.4 | 19.8 | 9.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3,435.00 | 1,083.00 | 410.00 | 59.26 | 2,344.00 | 611.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.52 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,435.00 | 1,083.00 | 410.00 | 3.20 | 2,344.00 | 611.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | HKD | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 18.52 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |