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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 27.0x - 29.8x | 28.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.8x - 6.4x | 6.1x |
| Fair Value | $8.10 - $9.10 | $8.60 |
| Upside | -4.8% - 6.9% | 1.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | AMR | NYSE:AMR |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | HCC | NYSE:HCC |
| Coronado Global Resources Inc. | CODQ.L | OTCPK:CODQ.L |
| Worthington Steel, Inc. | WS | NYSE:WS |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc. | STLD | NasdaqGS:STLD |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc. | METC | NasdaqGS:METC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AMR | HCC | CODQ.L | WS | STLD | METC | ||
| NYSE:AMR | NYSE:HCC | OTCPK:CODQ.L | NYSE:WS | NasdaqGS:STLD | NasdaqGS:METC | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 50.2% | -7.8% | NM- | NM- | 14.5% | -10.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -15.8% | -1.2% | NM- | -1.2% | -23.3% | -25.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -73.9% | -53.5% | -179.5% | -36.3% | -38.3% | -86.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.2% | 24.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 9.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.6% | 32.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 16.8% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.5% | 16.7% | -4.5% | 6.3% | 11.1% | 1.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.5% | 16.7% | -4.5% | 4.9% | 11.1% | 1.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.40x | 1.44x | 0.23x | 0.45x | 1.24x | 0.79x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.8x | 5.3x | 7.1x | 6.5x | 9.0x | 6.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.3x | 8.6x | -5.1x | 9.2x | 11.2x | 41.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -5.1x | 8.6x | 11.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -16.2x | 12.4x | 69.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 27.0x | 28.4x | 29.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 344 | 362 | 380 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (75) | (75) | (75) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 269 | 287 | 305 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.97 | 5.31 | 5.64 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.97 | 5.31 | 5.64 | 8.51 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.6% | -37.6% | -33.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AMR | HCC | CODQ.L | WS | STLD | METC | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,186 | 2,190 | 813 | 1,439 | 21,806 | 534 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 482 | 506 | 340 | 63 | 737 | 33 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 41 | 45 | 0 | 123 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (9) | (173) | (531) | (189) | (3,345) | (108) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (131) | (11) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,699 | 2,568 | 621 | 1,305 | 19,187 | 460 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 13.1 | 52.6 | 2,327.9 | 49.5 | 149.9 | 54.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 130.18 | 48.86 | 0.27 | 26.34 | 128.00 | 8.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 130.18 | 48.86 | 0.27 | 26.34 | 128.00 | 8.51 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |