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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | €31.81 - €36.10 | €33.95 |
| Upside | -58.4% - -52.8% | -55.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj | SEOF.F | OTCPK:SEOF.F |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
| International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
| Mondi plc | MNOD.F | OTCPK:MNOD.F |
| The Navigator Company, S.A. | POEL.F | OTCPK:POEL.F |
| Sylvamo Corporation | 88L | MUN:88L |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| SEOF.F | PKG | IP | MNOD.F | POEL.F | 88L | |||
| OTCPK:SEOF.F | NYSE:PKG | NYSE:IP | OTCPK:MNOD.F | OTCPK:POEL.F | MUN:88L | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.1% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% | -1.2% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -3.8% | 2.7% | -1.3% | 2.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.7% | 7.4% | -1.6% | 1.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.8% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 11.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 11.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.6% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 11.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.6% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 18.2% | 11.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.04x | 2.31x | 1.76x | 1.14x | 1.47x | 0.90x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 28.4x | 16.7x | 34.1x | 15.7x | 8.1x | 7.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.81x | 2.08x | 1.50x | 0.85x | 1.12x | 0.72x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.04x | 1.47x | 2.31x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.78x | 0.91x | 0.93x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.81x | 0.85x | 0.89x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 3,773 | 3,773 | 3,773 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,048 | 3,209 | 3,369 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (663) | (663) | (663) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,385 | 2,546 | 2,706 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 68.9 | 68.9 | 68.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 34.61 | 36.94 | 39.27 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 31.97 | 34.12 | 36.28 | 76.54 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -58.2% | -55.4% | -52.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SEOF.F | PKG | IP | MNOD.F | POEL.F | 88L | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,587 | 19,351 | 32,674 | 8,301 | 3,292 | 6,373 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,999 | 787 | 1,170 | 278 | 287 | 205 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,567 | 65 | 160 | 34 | 0 | 3 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,779) | (2,772) | (6,009) | (2,015) | (1,016) | (871) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 150 | 0 | 0 | (493) | (0) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,524 | 17,432 | 27,995 | 6,105 | 2,562 | 5,710 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 788.6 | 89.2 | 526.1 | 440.5 | 711.2 | 68.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.81 | 195.50 | 53.21 | 13.86 | 3.60 | 82.85 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.08 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.70 | 195.50 | 53.21 | 15.00 | 3.90 | 76.54 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.08 | |