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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.0x - 9.9x | 9.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.8x - 5.3x | 5.0x |
Fair Value | £1.99 - £2.44 | £2.22 |
Upside | 25.9% - 54.2% | 40.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
J D Wetherspoon plc | JDW | LSE:JDW |
Domino's Pizza Group plc | DOM | LSE:DOM |
Greggs plc | GRG | LSE:GRG |
Whitbread plc | WTB | LSE:WTB |
Marston's PLC | MARS | LSE:MARS |
SSP Group plc | SSPG | LSE:SSPG |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
JDW | DOM | GRG | WTB | MARS | SSPG | ||
LSE:JDW | LSE:DOM | LSE:GRG | LSE:WTB | LSE:MARS | LSE:SSPG | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 0.0% | 3.1% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | 3.3% | 10.8% | 51.0% | NM- | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -10.8% | 4.4% | 14.4% | -5.0% | 16.4% | 21.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -1.3% | 19.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | -6.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 9.2% | 17.4% | 13.4% | 28.5% | 17.2% | 10.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 10.1% | 18.5% | 13.8% | 27.4% | 19.4% | 10.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 8.9% | 18.5% | 13.8% | 27.4% | 19.4% | 10.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 2.27x | 1.04x | 3.23x | 1.73x | 0.90x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 12.2x | 7.6x | 11.8x | 8.9x | 8.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 14.1x | 13.4x | 10.5x | 15.9x | 10.7x | 12.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 10.2x | 12.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -12.8x | 10.9x | 118.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 9.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 373 | 373 | 373 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,352 | 3,528 | 3,704 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,817) | (1,817) | (1,817) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,535 | 1,711 | 1,888 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 799.8 | 799.8 | 799.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 1.92 | 2.14 | 2.36 | ||||
FX Rate: GBP/GBP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.92 | 2.14 | 2.36 | 1.59 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 21.1% | 35.0% | 48.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | JDW | DOM | GRG | WTB | MARS | SSPG | |
Enterprise Value | 1,892 | 1,511 | 2,145 | 9,462 | 1,564 | 3,084 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 75 | 52 | 125 | 909 | 44 | 255 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 38 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 22 | |
(-) Debt | (1,191) | (547) | (415) | (5,626) | (1,362) | (1,937) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (156) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 776 | 1,054 | 1,855 | 4,799 | 246 | 1,268 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 112.8 | 391.5 | 101.5 | 175.6 | 632.6 | 799.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 6.88 | 2.69 | 18.28 | 27.33 | 0.39 | 1.59 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.88 | 2.69 | 18.28 | 27.33 | 0.39 | 1.59 | |
Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |