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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.8% - 1.8% | 1.3% |
Fair Value | ₩70,677 - ₩79,558 | ₩74,686 |
Upside | 56.7% - 76.4% | 65.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
(KRW in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
Revenue | 1,131,168 | 1,280,500 | 1,358,000 | 1,405,530 | 1,433,641 | 1,462,313 | 1,491,560 | 1,521,391 | 1,551,819 | 1,582,855 | 1,614,512 | |
% Growth | -2.0% | 13.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 347,019 | 466,500 | 481,000 | 497,835 | 507,792 | 517,948 | 528,306 | 538,873 | 549,650 | 560,643 | 571,856 | |
% of Revenue | 30.7% | 36.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
(KRW in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 466,500 | 481,000 | 497,835 | 507,792 | 517,948 | 528,306 | 538,873 | 549,650 | 560,643 | 571,856 | 571,856 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (186,500) | (175,000) | (181,125) | (184,748) | (188,442) | (192,211) | (196,056) | (199,977) | (203,976) | (208,056) | (216,910) | |
EBIT | 280,000 | 306,000 | 316,710 | 323,044 | 329,505 | 336,095 | 342,817 | 349,673 | 356,667 | 363,800 | 354,946 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (56,000) | (61,200) | (63,342) | (64,609) | (65,901) | (67,219) | (68,563) | (69,935) | (71,333) | (72,760) | (70,989) | |
NOPAT | 152,671 | 224,000 | 244,800 | 253,368 | 258,435 | 263,604 | 268,876 | 274,254 | 279,739 | 285,334 | 291,040 | 283,957 |
Capital Expenditures | (126,690) | (238,000) | (262,550) | (210,830) | (237,127) | (236,835) | (223,734) | (228,209) | (229,593) | (227,178) | (228,327) | (228,327) |
NWC Investment | 1,809 | (11,715) | (6,080) | (3,729) | (2,205) | (2,249) | (2,294) | (2,340) | (2,387) | (2,435) | (2,483) | (1,583) |
(+) D&A | 156,180 | 186,500 | 175,000 | 181,125 | 184,748 | 188,442 | 192,211 | 196,056 | 199,977 | 203,976 | 208,056 | 216,910 |
Free Cash Flow | 183,970 | 160,785 | 151,170 | 219,935 | 203,851 | 212,962 | 235,059 | 239,760 | 247,736 | 259,697 | 268,286 | 270,957 |
% Growth | -13% | -6% | 45% | -7% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% |