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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.5% - 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Fair Value | Rp1,837 - Rp2,371 | Rp2,069 |
| Upside | 24.1% - 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 10,521,651 | 11,819,600 | 11,965,700 | 12,223,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | 12,047,000 | |
| % Growth | -1.7% | 12.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | -1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 2,229,852 | 3,064,500 | 3,093,000 | 3,470,500 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | |
| % of Revenue | 21.2% | 25.9% | 25.8% | 28.4% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 29.3% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 3,064,500 | 3,093,000 | 3,470,500 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | 3,531,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,235,500) | (634,000) | (716,500) | (624,000) | (802,000) | (802,000) | (802,000) | (802,000) | (802,000) | (802,000) | (660,725) | |
| EBIT | 1,829,000 | 2,459,000 | 2,754,000 | 2,907,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,729,000 | 2,870,275 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (493,830) | (663,930) | (743,580) | (784,890) | (736,830) | (736,830) | (736,830) | (736,830) | (736,830) | (736,830) | (774,974) | |
| NOPAT | 1,333,605 | 1,335,170 | 1,795,070 | 2,010,420 | 2,122,110 | 1,992,170 | 1,992,170 | 1,992,170 | 1,992,170 | 1,992,170 | 1,992,170 | 2,095,301 |
| Capital Expenditures | (398,722) | (691,000) | (694,000) | (721,500) | (772,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) | (695,500) |
| NWC Investment | 42,811 | (305,710) | (34,411) | (60,603) | 41,454 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (56,749) |
| (+) D&A | 402,996 | 1,235,500 | 634,000 | 716,500 | 624,000 | 802,000 | 802,000 | 802,000 | 802,000 | 802,000 | 802,000 | 660,725 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,380,690 | 1,573,960 | 1,700,659 | 1,944,817 | 2,015,064 | 2,098,670 | 2,098,670 | 2,098,670 | 2,098,670 | 2,098,670 | 2,098,670 | 2,003,776 |
| % Growth | 14% | 8% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -5% | |