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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11.6x - 12.8x | 12.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 13.9x - 15.4x | 14.6x |
| Fair Value | Rp193.97 - Rp245.04 | Rp219.50 |
| Upside | -21.2% - -0.4% | -10.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Archi Indonesia Tbk | ARCI | IDX:ARCI |
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk | AMMN | IDX:AMMN |
| PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk | KRAS | IDX:KRAS |
| PT Vale Indonesia Tbk | INCO | IDX:INCO |
| PT Gunung Raja Paksi Tbk | GGRP | IDX:GGRP |
| PT Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk | NIKL | IDX:NIKL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ARCI | AMMN | KRAS | INCO | GGRP | NIKL | ||
| IDX:ARCI | IDX:AMMN | IDX:KRAS | IDX:INCO | IDX:GGRP | IDX:NIKL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -19.9% | NM- | -24.5% | -0.1% | -7.4% | -1.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -23.0% | 27.7% | -58.0% | -16.5% | -47.8% | -24.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 89.7% | 16.4% | NM | -42.1% | -68.1% | 416.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 39.5% | 51.9% | 3.3% | 35.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 32.7% | 46.4% | 0.9% | 38.5% | 11.3% | -1.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 25.7% | 53.7% | 4.5% | 23.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 29.6% | 53.2% | NA | 23.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.87x | 17.45x | NA | 1.28x | 0.24x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 32.8x | NA | 5.6x | 5.1x | 12.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 42.7x | NA | 20.8x | -6.4x | 17.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.1x | 7.6x | 32.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -386.3x | 16.6x | 88.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.6x | 12.2x | 12.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 75 | 79 | 83 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (44) | (44) | (44) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 31 | 35 | 39 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,523.4 | 2,523.4 | 2,523.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/IDR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 202.25 | 228.22 | 254.18 | 246.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.8% | -7.2% | 3.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ARCI | AMMN | KRAS | INCO | GGRP | NIKL | |
| Enterprise Value | 914 | 35,789 | 1,269 | 1,180 | 81 | 82 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3 | 868 | 78 | 601 | 85 | 5 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 6 | 249 | 413 | 71 | 23 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (403) | (5,156) | (1,568) | (6) | (47) | (49) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (0) | (89) | (44) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 519 | 31,662 | 147 | 1,847 | 142 | 38 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 24,835.0 | 72,518.2 | 19,346.4 | 10,539.8 | 12,111.4 | 2,523.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.02 | 0.44 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.01 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 346.00 | 7,225.00 | 126.00 | 2,900.00 | 194.00 | 246.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |