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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.9x - 10.9x | 9.9x |
| Fair Value | Rp5,719 - Rp7,030 | Rp6,350 |
| Upside | 30.0% - 59.8% | 44.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 67,477,992 | 70,319,500 | 75,631,759 | 79,814,000 | 86,199,000 | 93,095,000 | 96,353,325 | 98,280,392 | 100,245,999 | 102,250,919 | 104,295,938 |
| % Growth | 9.5% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 7,307,311 | 7,090,000 | 7,890,000 | 9,124,437 | 10,716,368 | 12,504,637 | 12,942,299 | 13,201,145 | 13,465,168 | 13,734,472 | 14,009,161 |
| % of Revenue | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 7,090,000 | 7,890,000 | 9,124,437 | 10,716,368 | 12,504,637 | 12,942,299 | 13,201,145 | 13,465,168 | 13,734,472 | 14,009,161 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,432,500) | (1,511,700) | (1,183,437) | (2,326,368) | (4,059,637) | (4,201,724) | (4,285,759) | (4,371,474) | (4,458,904) | (4,548,082) | |
| EBIT | 5,657,500 | 6,378,300 | 7,941,000 | 8,390,000 | 8,445,000 | 8,740,575 | 8,915,387 | 9,093,694 | 9,275,568 | 9,461,079 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,244,650) | (1,403,226) | (1,747,020) | (1,845,800) | (1,857,900) | (1,922,927) | (1,961,385) | (2,000,613) | (2,040,625) | (2,081,437) | |
| NOPAT | 4,610,888 | 4,412,850 | 4,975,074 | 6,193,980 | 6,544,200 | 6,587,100 | 6,817,649 | 6,954,001 | 7,093,081 | 7,234,943 | 7,379,642 |
| Capital Expenditures | (774,542) | (1,453,500) | (1,466,000) | (2,817,000) | (3,015,000) | (3,165,000) | (2,999,000) | (3,058,980) | (3,074,327) | (3,044,102) | (3,059,136) |
| NWC Investment | (1,295,561) | (627,987) | (1,174,035) | (924,295) | (1,411,115) | (1,524,049) | (720,105) | (425,891) | (434,409) | (443,097) | (451,959) |
| (+) D&A | 1,395,916 | 1,432,500 | 1,511,700 | 1,183,437 | 2,326,368 | 4,059,637 | 4,201,724 | 4,285,759 | 4,371,474 | 4,458,904 | 4,548,082 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,936,701 | 3,763,863 | 3,846,739 | 3,636,122 | 4,444,452 | 5,957,688 | 7,300,268 | 7,754,890 | 7,955,820 | 8,206,648 | 8,416,629 |
| % Growth | -4% | 2% | -5% | 22% | 34% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |