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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14.8x - 16.4x | 15.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11.5x - 12.7x | 12.1x |
| Fair Value | Rp695.43 - Rp820.70 | Rp758.07 |
| Upside | -23.2% - -9.3% | -16.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk | FASW | IDX:FASW |
| Vicostone Joint Stock Company | VCS | HNX:VCS |
| PT Solusi Bangun Indonesia Tbk | SMCB | IDX:SMCB |
| Ha Tien 1 Cement Joint Stock Company | HT1 | HOSE:HT1 |
| PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | INTP | IDX:INTP |
| PT Cemindo Gemilang Tbk | CMNT | IDX:CMNT |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| FASW | VCS | SMCB | HT1 | INTP | CMNT | ||
| IDX:FASW | HNX:VCS | IDX:SMCB | HOSE:HT1 | IDX:INTP | IDX:CMNT | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -10.2% | 14.2% | -17.3% | 1.3% | 9.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -22.6% | -1.7% | -14.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -345.4% | -7.6% | -3.4% | -0.5% | 7.9% | -23.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.3% | 29.2% | 18.1% | 14.9% | 19.0% | 20.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -1.5% | 26.2% | 16.7% | 10.4% | 17.6% | 19.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -6.6% | 24.3% | 17.1% | 10.6% | 18.4% | 18.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.6% | 24.3% | 16.0% | 10.6% | 18.4% | 14.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.71x | 1.86x | 0.73x | 0.77x | 0.81x | 2.59x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -41.2x | 7.6x | 4.6x | 7.2x | 4.4x | 18.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -24.4x | 8.7x | 6.9x | 30.2x | 6.4x | 43.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -41.2x | 4.6x | 7.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.9x | 14.7x | 16.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.8x | 15.6x | 16.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,305,793 | 1,305,793 | 1,305,793 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 19,325,981 | 20,343,138 | 21,360,295 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8,470,032) | (8,470,032) | (8,470,032) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,855,949 | 11,873,106 | 12,890,263 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 17,125.5 | 17,125.5 | 17,125.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 633.91 | 693.30 | 752.69 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 633.91 | 693.30 | 752.69 | 905.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -30.0% | -23.4% | -16.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FASW | VCS | SMCB | HT1 | INTP | CMNT | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,899,014 | 8,038,461 | 8,902,932 | 5,255,450 | 14,934,041 | 23,968,613 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 71,962 | 2,254,697 | 271,915 | 865,530 | 4,496,547 | 434,934 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 9,612 | 36,484 | 260,522 | 67,209 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,466,482) | (965,158) | (2,194,438) | (1,511,390) | (2,438,744) | (8,632,740) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (9,757) | 0 | (339,435) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,504,494 | 9,328,000 | 6,990,021 | 4,636,317 | 17,252,366 | 15,498,581 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,477.9 | 160.0 | 9,019.4 | 381.6 | 3,350.0 | 17,125.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5,450.00 | 58,300.00 | 775.00 | 12,150.00 | 5,150.00 | 905.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5,450.00 | 58,300.00 | 775.00 | 12,150.00 | 5,150.00 | 905.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | VND | IDR | VND | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |