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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12.7x - 14.1x | 13.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 25.3x - 28.0x | 26.6x |
| Fair Value | Rp3,924 - Rp4,170 | Rp4,047 |
| Upside | -0.6% - 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT PAM Mineral Tbk | NICL | IDX:NICL |
| PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | INTP | IDX:INTP |
| Vicostone Joint Stock Company | VCS | HNX:VCS |
| PT Hillcon Tbk | HILL | IDX:HILL |
| An Cuong Wood - Working Joint Stock Company | ACG | HOSE:ACG |
| PT Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk | CITA | IDX:CITA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NICL | INTP | VCS | HILL | ACG | CITA | ||
| IDX:NICL | IDX:INTP | HNX:VCS | IDX:HILL | HOSE:ACG | IDX:CITA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 1.3% | -10.2% | 45.2% | -2.0% | -6.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 84.8% | 4.7% | -22.6% | -1.0% | 1.2% | 5.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1570.2% | -5.9% | -18.1% | 18.3% | -25.3% | 106.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.5% | 18.8% | 28.3% | 25.2% | 15.2% | 13.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 17.6% | 26.2% | 18.6% | 13.7% | 10.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 29.4% | 18.4% | 24.3% | 20.8% | 13.6% | 22.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 38.3% | 16.3% | 22.6% | 19.3% | 11.9% | 29.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.99x | 1.13x | 1.62x | 1.50x | 0.96x | 3.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.0x | 6.9x | 7.1x | 7.7x | 8.1x | 12.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.2x | 8.6x | 8.3x | 26.2x | 9.9x | 14.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 7.7x | 13.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.2x | 19.9x | 46.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.7x | 13.4x | 14.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 719,931 | 719,931 | 719,931 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,165,438 | 9,647,829 | 10,130,221 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 6,294,754 | 6,294,754 | 6,294,754 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 15,460,191 | 15,942,583 | 16,424,974 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,960.4 | 3,960.4 | 3,960.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,903.73 | 4,025.54 | 4,147.34 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3,903.73 | 4,025.54 | 4,147.34 | 3,950.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -1.2% | 1.9% | 5.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NICL | INTP | VCS | HILL | ACG | CITA | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,335,187 | 20,308,237 | 6,741,194 | 6,683,952 | 3,878,268 | 9,348,673 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 358,560 | 3,429,293 | 2,614,740 | 18,689 | 2,056,644 | 959,582 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 264,736 | 0 | 0 | 464,631 | 5,334,275 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,475) | (2,478,684) | (1,147,933) | (3,413,463) | (722,376) | 0 | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,449) | 0 | 0 | (252,429) | 0 | 897 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 10,688,823 | 21,523,582 | 8,208,000 | 3,036,749 | 5,677,166 | 15,643,427 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 10,635.6 | 3,350.0 | 160.0 | 14,741.5 | 150.8 | 3,960.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,005.00 | 6,425.00 | 51,300.00 | 206.00 | 37,650.00 | 3,950.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,005.00 | 6,425.00 | 51,300.00 | 206.00 | 37,650.00 | 3,950.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | VND | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |