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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.3x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.8x - 7.5x | 7.1x |
| Fair Value | Rp137.31 - Rp165.14 | Rp151.22 |
| Upside | -17.8% - -1.1% | -9.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Sinergi Multi Lestarindo Tbk | SMLE | IDX:SMLE |
| PT Lupromax Pelumas Indonesia Tbk | LMAX | IDX:LMAX |
| PT Mitra Pack Tbk | PTMP | IDX:PTMP |
| PT Berkah Prima Perkasa Tbk | BLUE | IDX:BLUE |
| PT Kusuma Kemindo Sentosa Tbk | KKES | IDX:KKES |
| PT Arita Prima Indonesia Tbk | APII | IDX:APII |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SMLE | LMAX | PTMP | BLUE | KKES | APII | ||
| IDX:SMLE | IDX:LMAX | IDX:PTMP | IDX:BLUE | IDX:KKES | IDX:APII | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 21.7% | 3.0% | -30.7% | -7.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 1.7% | 0.3% | 21.7% | 13.6% | -54.9% | -7.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 91.0% | 15.4% | 64.1% | 0.2% | -66.2% | -41.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.3% | 7.5% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 19.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 20.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.7% | 4.4% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 0.7% | 13.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.7% | 4.4% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 0.7% | 13.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | -0.06x | 1.22x | 0.80x | 0.20x | 1.14x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.0x | -1.3x | 8.8x | 5.5x | 26.6x | 8.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.8x | -1.7x | 10.5x | 6.1x | 51.2x | 12.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -1.3x | 8.8x | 26.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 6.4x | 8.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 7.6x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 36,602 | 36,602 | 36,602 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 265,438 | 279,408 | 293,379 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (136,690) | (136,690) | (136,690) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 128,748 | 142,718 | 156,689 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.8 | 1,075.8 | 1,075.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 119.68 | 132.67 | 145.65 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 119.68 | 132.67 | 145.65 | 167.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -28.3% | -20.6% | -12.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SMLE | LMAX | PTMP | BLUE | KKES | APII | |
| Enterprise Value | 243,365 | (4,469) | 233,795 | 129,515 | 43,314 | 316,342 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 70,712 | 30,279 | 13,006 | 6,622 | 1,662 | 8,860 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21,001 | |
| (-) Debt | (69,621) | (8,260) | (52,820) | (3,213) | (7,476) | (146,073) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1) | 0 | (13,336) | 0 | 0 | (20,478) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 244,456 | 17,550 | 180,644 | 132,924 | 37,500 | 179,652 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,328.2 | 650.0 | 3,169.2 | 418.0 | 1,500.0 | 1,075.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 105.00 | 27.00 | 57.00 | 318.00 | 25.00 | 167.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 105.00 | 27.00 | 57.00 | 318.00 | 25.00 | 167.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |