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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 13.0x - 15.0x | 14.0x |
| Fair Value | Rp2,493 - Rp2,936 | Rp2,707 |
| Upside | 21.6% - 43.2% | 32.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 118,227,031 | 130,407,331 | 144,002,878 | 157,019,000 | 162,514,665 | 165,764,958 | 169,080,257 | 172,461,863 | 175,911,100 | 179,429,322 | 183,017,908 |
| % Growth | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,837,976 | 9,802,949 | 8,905,000 | 9,015,900 | 9,331,457 | 9,518,086 | 9,708,447 | 9,902,616 | 10,100,669 | 10,302,682 | 10,508,736 |
| % of Revenue | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 9,802,949 | 8,905,000 | 9,015,900 | 9,331,457 | 9,518,086 | 9,708,447 | 9,902,616 | 10,100,669 | 10,302,682 | 10,508,736 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (5,223,449) | (3,456,000) | (4,731,952) | (4,897,570) | (4,995,522) | (5,095,432) | (5,197,341) | (5,301,288) | (5,407,313) | (5,515,460) | |
| EBIT | 4,579,500 | 5,449,000 | 4,283,948 | 4,433,886 | 4,522,564 | 4,613,015 | 4,705,275 | 4,799,381 | 4,895,369 | 4,993,276 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (915,900) | (1,089,800) | (856,790) | (886,777) | (904,513) | (922,603) | (941,055) | (959,876) | (979,074) | (998,655) | |
| NOPAT | 3,227,951 | 3,663,600 | 4,359,200 | 3,427,158 | 3,547,109 | 3,618,051 | 3,690,412 | 3,764,220 | 3,839,505 | 3,916,295 | 3,994,621 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,786,250) | (5,744,248) | (5,160,000) | (6,550,050) | (2,002,000) | (1,940,000) | (1,978,800) | (1,973,600) | (1,964,133) | (1,972,178) | (1,969,970) |
| NWC Investment | 236,416 | 255,232 | 284,888 | 272,746 | 115,159 | 68,108 | 69,470 | 70,860 | 72,277 | 73,723 | 75,197 |
| (+) D&A | 1,803,037 | 5,223,449 | 3,456,000 | 4,731,952 | 4,897,570 | 4,995,522 | 5,095,432 | 5,197,341 | 5,301,288 | 5,407,313 | 5,515,460 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,481,154 | 3,398,034 | 2,940,088 | 1,881,806 | 6,557,838 | 6,741,681 | 6,876,515 | 7,058,821 | 7,248,936 | 7,425,153 | 7,615,307 |
| % Growth | 37% | -13% | -36% | 248% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |