Cemtas Celik Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

IBSE:CEMTS

土耳其 / 材料 / 金屬和採礦

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF 增長退出價

股價

13.03 TRY

公允價值

15.63 TRY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.5% - 7.5%	8.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	1.0% - 2.0%	1.5%
Fair Value	₺14.34 - ₺17.37	₺15.63
Upside	10.1% - 33.3%	20.0%

0.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

15.1%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股價

13.03 TRY

公允價值

15.63 TRY

看漲

20.0%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(TRY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	5,773	3,873	4,176	4,486	4,804	5,130	5,310	5,416	5,524	5,635	5,747
% Growth	-19.9%	-32.9%	7.8%	7.4%	7.1%	6.8%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	635	676	696	711	723	732	758	773	788	804	820
% of Revenue	11.0%	17.5%	16.7%	15.8%	15.0%	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(TRY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		676	696	711	723	732	758	773	788	804	820	820
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(453)	(451)	(442)	(435)	(424)	(439)	(448)	(457)	(466)	(475)	(157)

EBIT		223	245	269	288	308	319	325	332	338	345	663
Pro forma Taxes		(60)	(66)	(73)	(78)	(83)	(86)	(88)	(90)	(91)	(93)	(179)
NOPAT	289	163	179	196	210	225	233	237	242	247	252	484

Capital Expenditures	(1,415)	(155)	(159)	(162)	(165)	(167)	(165)	(166)	(166)	(165)	(166)	(166)
NWC Investment	435	576	(92)	(94)	(96)	(99)	(54)	(32)	(33)	(33)	(34)	(26)
(+) D&A	238	453	451	442	435	424	439	448	457	466	475	157

Free Cash Flow	(452)	1,036	379	382	384	383	452	487	500	514	527	449
% Growth		NM	-63%	1%	0%	0%	18%	8%	3%	3%	3%	-15%

載入錯誤

Cemtas Celik Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

IBSE:CEMTS

土耳其 / 材料 / 金屬和採礦

10 年 DCF 增長退出價