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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.3x - 2.5x | 2.4x |
| Fair Value | ₫70,795 - ₫78,126 | ₫74,341 |
| Upside | 43.0% - 57.8% | 50.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (VND in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 31,872,417 | 32,828,572 | 33,813,000 | 34,827,832 | 33,186,800 | 34,189,000 | 34,872,780 | 35,570,236 | 36,281,640 | 37,007,273 | 37,747,419 |
| % Growth | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | -4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 4,968,393 | 5,437,315 | 5,799,000 | 5,899,000 | 5,621,049 | 5,790,797 | 5,906,613 | 6,024,745 | 6,145,240 | 6,268,145 | 6,393,508 |
| % of Revenue | 15.6% | 16.6% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 5,437,315 | 5,799,000 | 5,899,000 | 5,621,049 | 5,790,797 | 5,906,613 | 6,024,745 | 6,145,240 | 6,268,145 | 6,393,508 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,401,100 | 1,401,300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (622,606) | (867,000) | (867,000) | (826,148) | (851,097) | (868,119) | (885,481) | (903,191) | (921,255) | (939,680) | |
| EBIT | 4,814,709 | 4,932,000 | 5,032,000 | 6,196,000 | 6,341,000 | 5,038,494 | 5,139,264 | 5,242,049 | 5,346,890 | 5,453,828 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (962,942) | (986,400) | (1,006,400) | (1,239,200) | (1,268,200) | (1,007,699) | (1,027,853) | (1,048,410) | (1,069,378) | (1,090,766) | |
| NOPAT | 3,549,781 | 3,851,767 | 3,945,600 | 4,025,600 | 4,956,800 | 5,072,800 | 4,030,795 | 4,111,411 | 4,193,639 | 4,277,512 | 4,363,063 |
| Capital Expenditures | (296,018) | (501,491) | (565,718) | (626,705) | (597,175) | (615,209) | (613,030) | (608,472) | (612,237) | (611,246) | (610,652) |
| NWC Investment | 140,687 | 95,332 | 98,151 | 101,183 | (163,617) | 99,923 | 68,175 | 69,539 | 70,930 | 72,348 | 73,795 |
| (+) D&A | 531,167 | 622,606 | 867,000 | 867,000 | 826,148 | 851,097 | 868,119 | 885,481 | 903,191 | 921,255 | 939,680 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,925,617 | 4,068,214 | 4,345,033 | 4,367,078 | 5,022,156 | 5,408,611 | 4,354,060 | 4,457,960 | 4,555,523 | 4,659,869 | 4,765,886 |
| % Growth | 7% | 1% | 15% | 8% | -19% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||