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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.8% - 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Fair Value | ₫7,919 - ₫13,334 | ₫10,071 |
| Upside | -36.4% - 7.1% | -19.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (VND in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | 5,783,050 | |
| % Growth | -10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 2,097,853 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | |
| % of Revenue | 36.3% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | 36.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (VND in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | 2,115,115 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (469,288) | (690,805) | |
| EBIT | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,645,827 | 1,424,310 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (230,416) | (199,403) | |
| NOPAT | 1,384,722 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,415,411 | 1,224,906 |
| Capital Expenditures | (793,841) | (688,731) | (698,918) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) | (727,163) |
| NWC Investment | 378,379 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (141,046) |
| (+) D&A | 487,712 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 469,288 | 690,805 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,456,972 | 1,195,968 | 1,185,781 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,157,536 | 1,047,502 |
| % Growth | -18% | -1% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -10% | |