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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.9x - 10.9x | 10.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 3.8x | 3.6x |
| Fair Value | €4.68 - €10.23 | €7.45 |
| Upside | -59.1% - -10.6% | -34.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Finnair Oyj | 0EG8 | LSE:0EG8 |
| Air France-KLM SA | 0LN7 | LSE:0LN7 |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | 0RYA | LSE:0RYA |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Wizz Air Holdings Plc | WI2 | DB:WI2 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0EG8 | 0LN7 | 0H4A | 0RYA | IAG | WI2 | ||
| LSE:0EG8 | LSE:0LN7 | LSE:0H4A | LSE:0RYA | LSE:IAG | DB:WI2 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.4% | 1.9% | -2.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 193.9% | 102.7% | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -25.9% | 42.5% | 20.4% | 32.8% | 32.9% | 16.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -8.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 12.6% | -7.0% | -9.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 22.7% | 15.1% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 17.2% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 24.0% | 18.9% | 9.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 0.40x | 0.33x | 1.79x | 0.76x | 1.10x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 3.7x | 3.8x | 7.5x | 4.0x | 11.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 58.1x | 6.4x | 9.0x | 11.2x | 4.9x | 42.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 3.8x | 7.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -25.0x | -14.3x | 30.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.9x | 10.4x | 10.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 519 | 519 | 519 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,122 | 5,392 | 5,661 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,963) | (4,963) | (4,963) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 159 | 428 | 698 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 103.4 | 103.4 | 103.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.53 | 4.14 | 6.75 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.53 | 4.14 | 6.75 | 11.44 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -86.6% | -63.8% | -41.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0EG8 | 0LN7 | 0H4A | 0RYA | IAG | WI2 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,338 | 13,069 | 12,971 | 26,972 | 25,391 | 6,146 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 779 | 6,325 | 9,381 | 2,964 | 9,348 | 1,658 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 257 | 1,420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,571) | (15,004) | (14,497) | (1,467) | (14,807) | (6,621) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (2,126) | (61) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 545 | 2,521 | 9,214 | 28,468 | 19,932 | 1,183 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 204.8 | 262.6 | 1,198.3 | 1,052.5 | 4,583.3 | 103.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.66 | 9.60 | 7.69 | 27.05 | 4.35 | 11.44 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.66 | 9.60 | 7.69 | 23.81 | 3.83 | 11.44 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | GBP | GBP | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.00 | |