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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11.2x - 12.3x | 11.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.8x - 7.5x | 7.1x |
| Fair Value | €65.82 - €73.82 | €69.82 |
| Upside | -25.7% - -16.7% | -21.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT1 | XTRA:CAT1 |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | WB2 | DB:WB2 |
| Alstom SA | AOMD | XTRA:AOMD |
| Siemens Aktiengesellschaft | SIE | XTRA:SIE |
| The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | G90 | DB:G90 |
| Vossloh AG | VOS | DB:VOS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CAT1 | WB2 | AOMD | SIE | G90 | VOS | ||
| XTRA:CAT1 | DB:WB2 | XTRA:AOMD | XTRA:SIE | DB:G90 | DB:VOS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.9% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 13.8% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 11.6% | 44.8% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.6% | 9.2% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 42.1% | -1.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.1% | 18.4% | 6.1% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 11.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 23.6% | 18.4% | 6.0% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 11.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 24.1% | 20.4% | 6.8% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.4% | 20.9% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 10.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.79x | 3.54x | 0.58x | 2.92x | 0.86x | 1.53x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.2x | 16.9x | 8.5x | 19.0x | 5.9x | 14.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 18.9x | 21.2x | 17.0x | 23.4x | 7.7x | 21.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.9x | 16.2x | 19.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 8.7x | 21.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.2x | 11.7x | 12.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 134 | 134 | 134 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,491 | 1,570 | 1,648 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (197) | (197) | (197) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,294 | 1,373 | 1,451 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 66.99 | 71.05 | 75.11 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 66.99 | 71.05 | 75.11 | 88.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -24.4% | -19.8% | -15.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CAT1 | WB2 | AOMD | SIE | G90 | VOS | |
| Enterprise Value | 238,305 | 37,860 | 10,674 | 226,285 | 3,028 | 1,909 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,741 | 1,486 | 2,274 | 12,686 | 314 | 110 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 926 | 1,004 | 152 | 34 | |
| (-) Debt | (38,588) | (5,107) | (3,592) | (57,522) | (1,852) | (299) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | (44) | (113) | (5,601) | (206) | (42) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 202,455 | 34,195 | 10,169 | 176,852 | 1,436 | 1,712 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 470.3 | 171.0 | 462.0 | 778.1 | 30.9 | 19.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 430.47 | 200.02 | 22.01 | 227.30 | 46.51 | 88.60 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 366.50 | 170.30 | 22.01 | 227.30 | 39.60 | 88.60 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |