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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.6x - 18.4x | 17.5x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.4x - 9.3x | 8.9x |
Fair Value | €27.70 - €32.03 | €29.87 |
Upside | 10.4% - 27.7% | 19.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Outokumpu Oyj | OUT1V | HLSE:OUT1V |
Salzgitter AG | SZG | WBAG:SZG |
thyssenkrupp AG | TKR | WBAG:TKR |
SSAB AB (publ) | SSAB A | OM:SSABA |
ArcelorMittal S.A. | MT | WBAG:MT |
Voestalpine AG | VAS | DB:VAS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
OUT1V | SZG | TKR | SSAB A | MT | VAS | ||
HLSE:OUT1V | WBAG:SZG | WBAG:TKR | OM:SSABA | WBAG:MT | DB:VAS | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | 44.6% | 30.9% | 5.2% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | -53.8% | NM- | -25.3% | -40.9% | -34.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -700.0% | 92.4% | 114.2% | -59.8% | 5.8% | -17.0% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 4.0% | 1.4% | -3.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 6.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 2.3% | 0.4% | -4.4% | 13.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | -1.1% | 0.6% | -0.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.31x | 0.05x | 0.10x | 0.47x | 0.39x | 0.42x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.5x | 1.8x | 4.2x | 5.4x | 4.2x | 5.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -34.4x | -53.1x | 12.2x | 8.9x | 7.4x | 16.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -53.1x | 7.4x | 12.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 5.5x | 6.1x | 35.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.6x | 17.5x | 18.4x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 413 | 413 | 413 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,863 | 7,225 | 7,586 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,307) | (2,307) | (2,307) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,557 | 4,918 | 5,279 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 171.5 | 171.5 | 171.5 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 26.58 | 28.68 | 30.79 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 26.58 | 28.68 | 30.79 | 25.08 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 6.0% | 14.4% | 22.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | OUT1V | SZG | TKR | SSAB A | MT | VAS | |
Enterprise Value | 1,857 | 443 | 3,325 | 46,715 | 22,897 | 6,607 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 354 | 892 | 4,828 | 20,299 | 5,319 | 1,086 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 77 | 1,705 | 312 | 857 | 11,711 | 332 | |
(-) Debt | (607) | (1,695) | (863) | (9,409) | (12,047) | (3,485) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (9) | (779) | (40) | (2,093) | (240) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,681 | 1,336 | 6,823 | 58,422 | 25,787 | 4,300 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 471.2 | 54.1 | 622.5 | 996.6 | 768.5 | 171.5 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3.57 | 24.70 | 10.96 | 58.62 | 33.55 | 25.08 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.57 | 24.70 | 10.96 | 58.62 | 28.56 | 25.08 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | SEK | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 |