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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.0x - 8.8x | 8.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.2x - 3.6x | 3.4x |
| Fair Value | €11.01 - €12.64 | €11.82 |
| Upside | 37.5% - 57.8% | 47.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
| Accor SA | ACR | XTRA:ACR |
| Dalata Hotel Group plc | DHG | DB:DHG |
| Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
| Carnival Corporation & plc | POH1 | XTRA:POH1 |
| TUI AG | TUI1 | DB:TUI1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| Q1D | ACR | DHG | MEL | POH1 | TUI1 | ||
| MUN:Q1D | XTRA:ACR | DB:DHG | DB:MEL | XTRA:POH1 | DB:TUI1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 6.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 68.2% | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | 10.3% | 3.6% | 10.0% | 31.6% | -4.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 50.8% | 3.0% | 21.6% | -5.0% | -207.4% | -17.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 52.7% | 17.9% | 31.6% | 16.5% | 19.6% | 4.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 56.0% | 17.8% | 30.5% | 18.5% | 24.3% | 5.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 53.8% | 17.8% | 30.5% | 18.3% | 26.2% | 4.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 5.10x | 2.38x | 3.62x | 2.10x | 2.51x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.5x | 13.4x | 11.9x | 11.4x | 9.6x | 6.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.1x | 17.1x | 14.8x | 14.7x | 15.7x | 7.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.5x | 11.4x | 13.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -10.0x | 3.7x | 309.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 8.4x | 8.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 987 | 987 | 987 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,898 | 8,314 | 8,730 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,268) | (2,268) | (2,268) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,630 | 6,046 | 6,462 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 11.10 | 11.91 | 12.73 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.10 | 11.91 | 12.73 | 8.01 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 38.6% | 48.8% | 59.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | Q1D | ACR | DHG | MEL | POH1 | TUI1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,488 | 13,335 | 2,361 | 3,914 | 65,837 | 6,331 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 311 | 1,244 | 40 | 192 | 2,146 | 1,796 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 33 | 1,583 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,662 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,204) | (3,757) | (1,050) | (2,421) | (28,653) | (4,807) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (437) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (919) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,626 | 11,968 | 1,350 | 1,686 | 39,330 | 4,064 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 247.2 | 240.6 | 211.3 | 220.2 | 1,454.0 | 507.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.62 | 49.74 | 6.39 | 7.66 | 27.05 | 8.01 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.62 | 49.74 | 6.39 | 7.66 | 23.03 | 8.01 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |