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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.4x - 5.9x | 5.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 2.9x |
| Fair Value | €11.25 - €12.66 | €11.96 |
| Upside | 41.9% - 59.7% | 50.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
| Accor SA | ACR | XTRA:ACR |
| Carnival Corporation & plc | POH1 | XTRA:POH1 |
| Trip.com Group Limited | CLVB | BST:CLVB |
| Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
| TUI AG | TUI1 | DB:TUI1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| Q1D | ACR | POH1 | CLVB | MEL | TUI1 | ||
| MUN:Q1D | XTRA:ACR | XTRA:POH1 | BST:CLVB | DB:MEL | DB:TUI1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 8.0% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 3.6% | 6.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | 2.7% | 31.6% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 13.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 50.8% | 5.1% | -207.4% | 13.6% | -3.8% | -17.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 52.7% | 17.9% | 19.6% | 27.3% | 16.5% | 4.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 56.0% | 17.8% | 24.3% | 28.2% | 18.5% | 5.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 53.8% | 17.4% | 26.2% | 27.6% | 18.6% | 5.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.12x | 2.09x | 2.58x | 4.67x | 1.90x | 0.21x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 12.0x | 9.8x | 16.9x | 10.2x | 4.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 14.3x | 16.1x | 17.9x | 12.9x | 5.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 10.2x | 16.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -10.0x | 4.5x | 309.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 5.6x | 5.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,273 | 1,273 | 1,273 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,835 | 7,194 | 7,554 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,081) | (1,081) | (1,081) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,753 | 6,113 | 6,473 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 11.34 | 12.05 | 12.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.34 | 12.05 | 12.76 | 7.93 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 43.0% | 51.9% | 60.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | Q1D | ACR | POH1 | CLVB | MEL | TUI1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,818 | 11,851 | 67,167 | 214,777 | 3,880 | 5,105 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 311 | 1,135 | 2,146 | 80,018 | 303 | 2,694 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 33 | 1,546 | 0 | 51,121 | 333 | 1,730 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,204) | (4,281) | (28,653) | (39,683) | (2,508) | (4,604) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (421) | 0 | (1,043) | (319) | (901) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,956 | 9,830 | 40,660 | 305,190 | 1,690 | 4,024 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 247.2 | 240.3 | 1,454.0 | 653.6 | 220.2 | 507.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.91 | 40.90 | 27.96 | 466.93 | 7.68 | 7.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 8.41 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.91 | 40.90 | 23.61 | 55.50 | 7.68 | 7.93 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 8.41 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |