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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6.8x - 7.5x | 7.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Fair Value | €9.72 - €11.45 | €10.59 |
| Upside | 34.4% - 58.3% | 46.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
| Expedia Group, Inc. | E3X1 | XTRA:E3X1 |
| Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
| Carnival Corporation & plc | POH1 | XTRA:POH1 |
| Dalata Hotel Group plc | DHG | DB:DHG |
| TUI AG | TUI1 | DB:TUI1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| Q1D | E3X1 | MEL | POH1 | DHG | TUI1 | ||
| MUN:Q1D | XTRA:E3X1 | DB:MEL | XTRA:POH1 | DB:DHG | DB:TUI1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 55.4% | NM- | NM- | 68.2% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.1% | 12.2% | 16.7% | 35.7% | 3.6% | 24.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 48.5% | 4.4% | -5.2% | -207.9% | 21.6% | -18.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 52.7% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 19.6% | 31.6% | 4.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 56.0% | 13.4% | 18.5% | 24.3% | 30.5% | 5.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 56.0% | 13.4% | 18.5% | 25.1% | 30.5% | 5.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 7.72x | 1.72x | 1.86x | 2.17x | 3.32x | 0.29x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 12.9x | 10.1x | 8.6x | 10.9x | 5.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 18.8x | 14.2x | 12.9x | 14.5x | 13.6x | 7.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 10.9x | 13.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -10.0x | 4.5x | 309.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 7.1x | 7.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,227 | 1,227 | 1,227 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 8,332 | 8,770 | 9,209 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,398) | (3,398) | (3,398) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,934 | 5,372 | 5,811 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.72 | 10.59 | 11.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.72 | 10.59 | 11.45 | 7.24 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 34.4% | 46.3% | 58.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | Q1D | E3X1 | MEL | POH1 | DHG | TUI1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,655 | 24,018 | 3,737 | 53,188 | 2,167 | 7,070 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 4,483 | 192 | 833 | 40 | 1,659 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,698 | 291 | 0 | 0 | 1,599 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (6,594) | (2,421) | (28,395) | (1,050) | (5,762) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,242) | (312) | 0 | 0 | (894) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,655 | 22,363 | 1,487 | 25,626 | 1,156 | 3,672 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 247.2 | 128.9 | 220.2 | 1,354.9 | 211.3 | 507.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.74 | 173.55 | 6.76 | 18.91 | 5.47 | 7.24 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.74 | 161.40 | 6.76 | 17.59 | 5.47 | 7.24 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |