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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

DB:TSI

中國 / 必需消費品 / 飲品

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10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

6.23 EUR

公允價值

7.89 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.5% - 7.5%	8.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	13.9x - 15.9x	14.9x
Fair Value	€7.41 - €8.41	€7.89
Upside	18.9% - 35.0%	26.7%

3.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

20.5%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

13.7%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

6.23 EUR

公允價值

7.89 EUR

看漲

26.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	32,138	33,410	34,471	35,567	37,358	39,055	39,836	40,632	41,445	42,274	43,119
% Growth	-5.3%	4.0%	3.2%	3.2%	5.0%	4.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	5,543	6,899	7,262	7,902	7,483	7,872	8,029	8,190	8,354	8,521	8,691
% of Revenue	17.2%	20.6%	21.1%	22.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.2%	20.2%	20.2%	20.2%	20.2%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		6,899	7,262	7,902	7,483	7,872	8,029	8,190	8,354	8,521	8,691
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,685)	(963)	(1,012)	(1,833)	(1,904)	(1,942)	(1,981)	(2,021)	(2,061)	(2,102)

EBIT		5,214	6,299	6,890	5,650	5,968	6,087	6,209	6,333	6,460	6,589
Pro forma Taxes		(1,304)	(1,575)	(1,722)	(1,413)	(1,492)	(1,522)	(1,552)	(1,583)	(1,615)	(1,647)
NOPAT	3,373	3,911	4,724	5,167	4,238	4,476	4,566	4,657	4,750	4,845	4,942

Capital Expenditures	(2,141)	(1,495)	(1,439)	(1,474)	(1,873)	(1,977)	(1,775)	(1,810)	(1,846)	(1,810)	(1,822)
NWC Investment	(740)	523	436	450	736	698	321	328	334	341	348
(+) D&A	1,045	1,685	963	1,012	1,833	1,904	1,942	1,981	2,021	2,061	2,102

Free Cash Flow	1,538	4,624	4,685	5,156	4,934	5,101	5,054	5,155	5,258	5,436	5,569
% Growth		201%	1%	10%	-4%	3%	-1%	2%	2%	3%	2%

載入錯誤

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

DB:TSI

中國 / 必需消費品 / 飲品

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價