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The Siam Cement Public Company Limited

DB:TCM1

泰國 / 材料 / 建築材料

綜觀

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

3.98 EUR

公允價值

7.22 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	12.0% - 11.0%	11.5%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	1.0x - 1.1x	1.1x
Fair Value	€6.52 - €7.97	€7.22
Upside	63.8% - 100.2%	81.4%

4.1%

Revenue 10y CAGR

13.9%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

48.8%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

3.98 EUR

公允價值

7.22 EUR

看漲

81.4%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(THB in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	511,172	534,791	564,534	622,974	669,697	693,136	706,999	721,139	735,562	750,273	765,279
% Growth	2.3%	4.6%	5.6%	10.4%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	30,627	40,368	49,065	55,819	95,392	114,897	117,195	119,539	121,930	124,368	126,856
% of Revenue	6.0%	7.5%	8.7%	9.0%	14.2%	16.6%	16.6%	16.6%	16.6%	16.6%	16.6%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		40,368	49,065	55,819	95,392	114,897	117,195	119,539	121,930	124,368	126,856
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(21,546)	(30,681)	(37,984)	(50,828)	(69,533)	(70,924)	(72,342)	(73,789)	(75,265)	(76,770)

EBIT		18,823	18,384	17,835	44,564	45,364	46,271	47,197	48,141	49,103	50,086
Pro forma Taxes		(3,388)	(3,309)	(3,210)	(8,022)	(8,166)	(8,329)	(8,495)	(8,665)	(8,839)	(9,015)
NOPAT	2,977	15,434	15,075	14,625	36,542	37,198	37,942	38,701	39,475	40,265	41,070

Capital Expenditures	(26,663)	(30,000)	(30,544)	(31,087)	(41,049)	(42,108)	(38,081)	(38,843)	(39,620)	(38,848)	(39,103)
NWC Investment	(1,881)	(3,854)	(4,853)	(9,536)	(7,624)	(3,825)	(2,262)	(2,307)	(2,353)	(2,401)	(2,449)
(+) D&A	26,997	21,546	30,681	37,984	50,828	69,533	70,924	72,342	73,789	75,265	76,770

Free Cash Flow	1,430	3,126	10,359	11,986	38,698	60,799	68,523	69,893	71,291	74,281	76,288
% Growth			231%	16%	223%	57%	13%	2%	2%	4%	3%

載入錯誤

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited

DB:TCM1

泰國 / 材料 / 建築材料

10 年 DCF 收入退出價