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Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd.

DB:SUI

日本 / 工業 / 工業企業集團

10 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

15.70 EUR

公允價值

18.21 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.5% - 7.5%	8.0%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	5.9x - 7.9x	6.9x
Fair Value	€16.15 - €20.44	€18.21
Upside	2.9% - 30.2%	16.0%

2.4%

Revenue 10y CAGR

13.8%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

3.9%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

15.70 EUR

公允價值

18.21 EUR

看漲

16.0%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(JPY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Mar-25	Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30	Mar-31	Mar-32	Mar-33	Mar-34	Mar-35

Revenue	1,297,754	1,342,000	1,380,500	1,428,000	1,456,560	1,485,691	1,515,405	1,545,713	1,576,627	1,608,160	1,640,323
% Growth	3.3%	3.4%	2.9%	3.4%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	161,708	175,200	187,500	198,600	202,572	206,623	210,756	214,971	219,270	223,656	228,129
% of Revenue	12.5%	13.1%	13.6%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(JPY in millions)		Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30	Mar-31	Mar-32	Mar-33	Mar-34	Mar-35

EBITDA		175,200	187,500	198,600	202,572	206,623	210,756	214,971	219,270	223,656	228,129
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(61,700)	(63,000)	(68,600)	(69,972)	(71,371)	(72,799)	(74,255)	(75,740)	(77,255)	(78,800)

EBIT		113,500	124,500	130,000	132,600	135,252	137,957	140,716	143,531	146,401	149,329
Pro forma Taxes		(37,455)	(41,085)	(42,900)	(43,758)	(44,633)	(45,526)	(46,436)	(47,365)	(48,312)	(49,279)
NOPAT	72,328	76,045	83,415	87,100	88,842	90,619	92,431	94,280	96,165	98,089	100,051

Capital Expenditures	(58,104)	(105,000)	(75,000)	(75,000)	(85,000)	(86,700)	(82,233)	(83,878)	(84,270)	(83,461)	(83,870)
NWC Investment	(7,404)	(7,949)	(6,916)	(8,533)	(5,131)	(5,233)	(5,338)	(5,445)	(5,554)	(5,665)	(5,778)
(+) D&A	53,756	61,700	63,000	68,600	69,972	71,371	72,799	74,255	75,740	77,255	78,800

Free Cash Flow	60,576	24,796	64,499	72,167	68,683	70,057	77,659	79,212	82,081	86,218	89,203
% Growth		-59%	160%	12%	-5%	2%	11%	2%	4%	5%	3%

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