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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x - 5.8x | 5.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 4.9x | 4.6x |
| Fair Value | €18.84 - €20.98 | €19.91 |
| Upside | -0.8% - 10.4% | 4.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kato Works Co.,Ltd. | 6390 | TSE:6390 |
| Tadano Ltd. | 6395 | TSE:6395 |
| Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. | 528 | SZSE:000528 |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd | 600031 | SHSE:600031 |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 6503 | TSE:6503 |
| Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. | SSM1 | DB:SSM1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6390 | 6395 | 528 | 600031 | 6503 | SSM1 | ||
| TSE:6390 | TSE:6395 | SZSE:000528 | SHSE:600031 | TSE:6503 | DB:SSM1 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | -8.7% | 2.5% | -1.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 157.9% | 12.3% | -14.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | 0.8% | -2.8% | 28.1% | 10.4% | -29.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | 9.1% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.77x | 0.54x | 0.75x | 1.86x | 1.17x | 0.42x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.7x | 5.9x | 10.1x | 14.6x | 11.1x | 5.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 270.6x | 8.4x | 13.8x | 19.3x | 15.1x | 10.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.9x | 11.1x | 17.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 3.6x | 4.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 5.6x | 5.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 80,753 | 80,753 | 80,753 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 427,182 | 449,666 | 472,149 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (30,600) | (30,600) | (30,600) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 396,582 | 419,066 | 441,549 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 120.2 | 120.2 | 120.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,299.81 | 3,486.89 | 3,673.96 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 173.1 | 173.1 | 173.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.06 | 20.14 | 21.22 | 19.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 0.3% | 6.0% | 11.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6390 | 6395 | 528 | 600031 | 6503 | SSM1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,310 | 170,028 | 24,240 | 156,375 | 6,567,096 | 425,875 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12,479 | 117,753 | 9,058 | 36,761 | 821,783 | 116,132 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,903 | 12,193 | 1,130 | 3,336 | 313,049 | 96,686 | |
| (-) Debt | (41,537) | (164,712) | (11,311) | (24,969) | (360,870) | (237,905) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (17) | (1,771) | (1,453) | (1,118) | (127,639) | (5,513) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 16,138 | 133,491 | 21,664 | 170,384 | 7,213,419 | 395,275 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 11.3 | 126.2 | 1,991.2 | 8,405.7 | 2,053.9 | 120.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,424.00 | 1,058.00 | 10.88 | 20.27 | 3,512.00 | 3,288.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.10 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,424.00 | 1,058.00 | 10.88 | 20.27 | 3,512.00 | 19.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | CNY | CNY | JPY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.10 | |