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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 10.4x - 11.4x | 10.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
| Fair Value | €15.85 - €18.25 | €17.05 |
| Upside | -11.9% - 1.4% | -5.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kato Works Co.,Ltd. | 6390 | TSE:6390 |
| Tadano Ltd. | 6395 | TSE:6395 |
| Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. | 157 | SZSE:000157 |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 6503 | TSE:6503 |
| Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. | 528 | SZSE:000528 |
| Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. | SSM1 | DB:SSM1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6390 | 6395 | 157 | 6503 | 528 | SSM1 | ||
| TSE:6390 | TSE:6395 | SZSE:000157 | TSE:6503 | SZSE:000528 | DB:SSM1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 8.5% | -9.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | -6.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -21.1% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 2.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -38.8% | 15.2% | -8.8% | 21.0% | 14.0% | -37.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -1.9% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.9% | NA | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 0.51x | 1.54x | 1.12x | 0.78x | 0.50x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.1x | 5.2x | 17.2x | 11.6x | 9.9x | 6.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 40.0x | 6.8x | 23.7x | 16.3x | 13.5x | 11.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.8x | 16.3x | 40.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 6.4x | 7.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 10.4x | 10.9x | 11.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 47,849 | 47,849 | 47,849 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 495,638 | 521,724 | 547,811 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (144,811) | (144,811) | (144,811) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 350,827 | 376,913 | 403,000 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 120.2 | 120.2 | 120.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,919.05 | 3,136.10 | 3,353.15 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 173.4 | 173.4 | 173.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.84 | 18.09 | 19.34 | 18.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -6.5% | 0.5% | 7.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6390 | 6395 | 157 | 6503 | 528 | SSM1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 40,558 | 161,835 | 73,844 | 6,239,687 | 24,490 | 519,896 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 14,763 | 80,875 | 15,936 | 757,331 | 8,514 | 121,972 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,854 | 9,141 | 6,299 | 324,766 | 1,066 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (43,808) | (129,066) | (27,965) | (360,661) | (10,421) | (261,201) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,787) | (2,559) | (126,688) | (1,534) | (5,582) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,367 | 120,998 | 65,556 | 6,834,435 | 22,114 | 375,085 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 11.3 | 111.8 | 8,648.5 | 2,065.4 | 1,983.3 | 120.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,356.00 | 1,082.50 | 7.58 | 3,309.00 | 11.15 | 3,120.89 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.38 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,356.00 | 1,082.50 | 7.58 | 3,309.00 | 11.15 | 18.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | CNY | JPY | CNY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 173.38 | |