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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.0x - 4.4x | 4.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 4.9x | 4.6x |
| Fair Value | €1.77 - €2.20 | €1.99 |
| Upside | 41.6% - 76.3% | 58.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Empresas CMPC S.A. | CMPC | SNSE:CMPC |
| West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | WFG | TSX:WFG |
| Clearwater Paper Corporation | CLW | NYSE:CLW |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj | UPMK.F | OTCPK:UPMK.F |
| Suzano S.A. | SUZB3 | BOVESPA:SUZB3 |
| Sappi Limited | SPI | DB:SPI |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CMPC | WFG | CLW | UPMK.F | SUZB3 | SPI | ||
| SNSE:CMPC | TSX:WFG | NYSE:CLW | OTCPK:UPMK.F | BOVESPA:SUZB3 | DB:SPI | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.8% | 46.7% | -20.2% | 3.9% | 18.2% | -3.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.8% | -47.5% | -32.0% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 4.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.5% | -46.8% | -7.6% | 24.2% | 49.4% | 60.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.1% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 17.1% | 51.6% | 10.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 15.2% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 44.6% | 14.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 20.1% | 49.5% | 9.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 18.4% | 48.0% | 13.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.13x | 0.92x | 0.42x | 1.34x | 2.94x | 0.47x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 11.5x | 7.2x | 7.3x | 6.1x | 3.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 23.5x | -73.6x | 2173.4x | 15.1x | 10.1x | 5.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.1x | 7.2x | 11.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.6x | 6.2x | 8.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 4.2x | 4.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 739 | 739 | 739 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,929 | 3,084 | 3,238 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,652) | (1,652) | (1,652) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,277 | 1,432 | 1,586 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 604.6 | 604.6 | 604.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.11 | 2.37 | 2.62 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.81 | 2.03 | 2.25 | 1.25 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 44.8% | 62.3% | 79.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CMPC | WFG | CLW | UPMK.F | SUZB3 | SPI | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,681 | 5,373 | 652 | 13,238 | 144,113 | 2,534 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 646 | 646 | 47 | 627 | 16,431 | 156 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2,400 | 1,427 | 18 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,826) | (336) | (341) | (4,066) | (97,894) | (1,826) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (0) | 0 | 0 | (332) | (137) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,565 | 5,683 | 358 | 11,867 | 63,940 | 882 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,500.0 | 78.9 | 16.1 | 527.3 | 1,238.7 | 604.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.43 | 72.06 | 22.22 | 22.50 | 51.62 | 1.46 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,389.70 | 98.95 | 22.22 | 26.27 | 51.62 | 1.25 | |
| Trading Currency | CLP | CAD | USD | USD | BRL | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |