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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.2x | 1.1x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.1x - 1.2x | 1.2x |
| Fair Value | €38.85 - €44.29 | €41.57 |
| Upside | 14.5% - 30.5% | 22.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Umicore SA | UMI | ENXTBR:UMI |
| Syensqo SA/NV | SYENS | ENXTBR:SYENS |
| Symrise AG | SY1 | DB:SY1 |
| K+S Aktiengesellschaft | SDF | DB:SDF |
| Novonesis A/S | NZM2 | DB:NZM2 |
| Solvay SA | SOL | DB:SOL |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| UMI | SYENS | SY1 | SDF | NZM2 | SOL | |||
| ENXTBR:UMI | ENXTBR:SYENS | DB:SY1 | DB:SDF | DB:NZM2 | DB:SOL | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.2% | NM- | 8.0% | 7.5% | 14.8% | -14.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -14.8% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 24.0% | -23.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -18.7% | -3.1% | 5.7% | -5.7% | 59.6% | -14.8% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 24.7% | 8.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.3% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 25.4% | 13.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -2.1% | 10.4% | 14.4% | -1.2% | 22.0% | 11.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.1% | 10.4% | 14.4% | -1.2% | 22.0% | 11.7% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.20x | 1.16x | 3.02x | 0.65x | 6.93x | 0.95x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | -9.6x | 11.2x | 21.1x | -54.5x | 31.5x | 8.1x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.15x | 1.00x | 2.56x | 0.66x | 6.53x | 0.69x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.20x | 1.16x | 6.93x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.70x | 1.16x | 7.95x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.06x | 1.11x | 1.17x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,130 | 5,130 | 5,130 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,419 | 5,705 | 5,990 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,340) | (1,340) | (1,340) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,079 | 4,365 | 4,650 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 104.3 | 104.3 | 104.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 39.10 | 41.83 | 44.57 | |||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 39.10 | 41.83 | 44.57 | 33.93 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 15.2% | 23.3% | 31.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | UMI | SYENS | SY1 | SDF | NZM2 | SOL | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,954 | 7,964 | 12,750 | 2,363 | 26,451 | 4,880 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,013 | 726 | 0 | 524 | 280 | 555 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 611 | 337 | 0 | 271 | 24 | 308 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,437) | (2,115) | 0 | (746) | (1,797) | (2,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 16 | (50) | 0 | (4) | 0 | (65) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,157 | 6,862 | 12,750 | 2,409 | 24,958 | 3,540 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 240.5 | 103.5 | 139.8 | 179.1 | 466.5 | 104.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.97 | 66.31 | 91.22 | 13.45 | 53.50 | 33.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.97 | 66.31 | 91.22 | 13.45 | 53.50 | 33.93 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |