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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.1x - 7.9x | 7.5x |
| Fair Value | €37.11 - €42.31 | €39.71 |
| Upside | 20.0% - 36.7% | 28.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Umicore SA | UMI | ENXTBR:UMI |
| K+S Aktiengesellschaft | SDF | DB:SDF |
| Novonesis A/S | NZM2 | DB:NZM2 |
| Evonik Industries AG | EVK | DB:EVK |
| Wacker Chemie AG | WCH | DB:WCH |
| Solvay SA | SOL | DB:SOL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| UMI | SDF | NZM2 | EVK | WCH | SOL | ||
| ENXTBR:UMI | DB:SDF | DB:NZM2 | DB:EVK | DB:WCH | DB:SOL | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 11.9% | -6.9% | 59.1% | -13.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 17.2% | -13.2% | -38.1% | -22.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -138.9% | -112.1% | 38.0% | 37.4% | -20.0% | -30.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.6% | 8.6% | 24.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.3% | 9.3% | 25.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 13.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -2.1% | -1.2% | 22.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.1% | -1.2% | 22.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 11.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.18x | 0.65x | 7.05x | 0.75x | 0.53x | 0.89x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -41.3x | 5.6x | 25.0x | 6.7x | 4.5x | 5.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -8.6x | -54.6x | 32.0x | 13.7x | 12.5x | 7.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -54.6x | 12.5x | 32.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -18.6x | 7.9x | 13.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.7x | 9.2x | 9.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 574 | 574 | 574 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,997 | 5,260 | 5,523 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,274) | (1,274) | (1,274) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,723 | 3,986 | 4,249 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 104.5 | 104.5 | 104.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 35.64 | 38.16 | 40.68 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 35.64 | 38.16 | 40.68 | 30.94 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 15.2% | 23.3% | 31.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | UMI | SDF | NZM2 | EVK | WCH | SOL | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,652 | 2,363 | 26,725 | 11,416 | 3,012 | 4,506 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,013 | 524 | 280 | 618 | 1,215 | 621 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 611 | 271 | 24 | 509 | 1,045 | 308 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,437) | (746) | (1,797) | (3,781) | (1,947) | (2,138) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 16 | (4) | 0 | (80) | (168) | (65) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,855 | 2,409 | 25,232 | 8,682 | 3,157 | 3,232 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 240.5 | 179.1 | 466.2 | 466.0 | 49.7 | 104.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.72 | 13.45 | 54.12 | 18.63 | 63.55 | 30.94 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.72 | 13.45 | 54.12 | 18.63 | 63.55 | 30.94 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |