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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.8% - 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Fair Value | €13.73 - €18.94 | €15.86 |
| Upside | -8.4% - 26.3% | 5.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 4,402,814 | 4,615,800 | 4,721,250 | 4,826,900 | 4,871,500 | 4,960,000 | 4,960,000 | 4,960,000 | 4,960,000 | 4,960,000 | 4,960,000 | |
| % Growth | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 432,951 | 495,900 | 520,000 | 547,452 | 558,650 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | |
| % of Revenue | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 495,900 | 520,000 | 547,452 | 558,650 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | 576,800 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (208,400) | (213,000) | (217,452) | (211,650) | (215,500) | (215,500) | (215,500) | (215,500) | (215,500) | (215,500) | (266,000) | |
| EBIT | 287,500 | 307,000 | 330,000 | 347,000 | 361,300 | 361,300 | 361,300 | 361,300 | 361,300 | 361,300 | 310,800 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (94,875) | (101,310) | (108,900) | (114,510) | (119,229) | (119,229) | (119,229) | (119,229) | (119,229) | (119,229) | (102,564) | |
| NOPAT | 151,834 | 192,625 | 205,690 | 221,100 | 232,490 | 242,071 | 242,071 | 242,071 | 242,071 | 242,071 | 242,071 | 208,236 |
| Capital Expenditures | (179,323) | (250,000) | (265,000) | (270,000) | (280,000) | (290,000) | (280,000) | (280,000) | (280,000) | (280,000) | (280,000) | (280,000) |
| NWC Investment | (95,453) | (51,177) | (25,338) | (25,386) | (10,717) | (21,265) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (50,652) |
| (+) D&A | 206,333 | 208,400 | 213,000 | 217,452 | 211,650 | 215,500 | 215,500 | 215,500 | 215,500 | 215,500 | 215,500 | 266,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 83,391 | 99,848 | 128,352 | 143,166 | 153,423 | 146,306 | 177,571 | 177,571 | 177,571 | 177,571 | 177,571 | 143,584 |
| % Growth | 20% | 29% | 12% | 7% | -5% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |