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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 4.6x - 5.1x | 4.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.3x - 5.8x | 5.6x |
| Fair Value | €7.10 - €8.54 | €7.82 |
| Upside | 60.0% - 92.4% | 76.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| AECI Ltd | AFE | JSE:AFE |
| African Rainbow Minerals Limited | ARI | JSE:ARI |
| Solvay SA | SVYS.F | OTCPK:SVYS.F |
| LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | L1YB34 | BOVESPA:L1YB34 |
| Westlake Corporation | WLK | NYSE:WLK |
| Sasol Limited | SAOA | DB:SAOA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AFE | ARI | SVYS.F | L1YB34 | WLK | SAOA | ||
| JSE:AFE | JSE:ARI | OTCPK:SVYS.F | BOVESPA:L1YB34 | NYSE:WLK | DB:SAOA | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -5.3% | NM- | -13.3% | -7.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.0% | NM- | -22.0% | -28.1% | -29.8% | 20.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -23.9% | -163.9% | -25.2% | -52.7% | -22.4% | -9.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.7% | 31.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 14.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 32.3% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 18.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.6% | -1.5% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 16.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.5% | -7.1% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.40x | 0.00x | 0.91x | 0.64x | 1.01x | 0.55x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.4x | 0.1x | 6.3x | 8.8x | 7.2x | 2.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.1x | 0.0x | 9.3x | 16.3x | 16.9x | 3.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 0.0x | 9.3x | 16.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 3.9x | 8.1x | 13.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 4.6x | 4.8x | 5.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 39,646 | 39,646 | 39,646 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 181,738 | 191,304 | 200,869 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (87,257) | (87,257) | (87,257) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 94,481 | 104,047 | 113,612 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 636.2 | 636.2 | 636.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 148.51 | 163.55 | 178.58 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/EUR | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.10 | 7.82 | 8.54 | 4.44 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 60.0% | 76.2% | 92.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AFE | ARI | SVYS.F | L1YB34 | WLK | SAOA | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,457 | 30 | 4,522 | 24,581 | 12,084 | 146,308 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,888 | 8,444 | 345 | 1,718 | 2,480 | 36,716 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 365 | 33,770 | 287 | 4,080 | 1,075 | 14,586 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,205) | (2,134) | (2,227) | (13,360) | (5,455) | (134,183) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (122) | (4,134) | (63) | (126) | (511) | (4,376) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | (6) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 11,377 | 35,976 | 2,864 | 16,893 | 9,673 | 59,051 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 105.5 | 196.1 | 104.5 | 622.8 | 128.2 | 636.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 107.82 | 183.50 | 27.42 | 27.12 | 75.43 | 92.82 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 20.91 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 107.82 | 183.50 | 31.75 | 150.40 | 75.43 | 4.44 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ZAR | USD | BRL | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 20.91 | |