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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 15.1x - 16.7x | 15.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | €5.47 - €6.27 | €5.87 |
| Upside | 31.0% - 50.3% | 40.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Jenoptik AG | JEN | DB:JEN |
| Acconeer AB (publ) | ACCON | OM:ACCON |
| DistIT AB (publ) | DIST | OM:DIST |
| Frontwalker AB (publ) | FRWA B | NGM:FRWAB |
| Image Systems AB | IS | OM:IS |
| Sensys Gatso Group AB (publ) | S5E0 | DB:S5E0 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| JEN | ACCON | DIST | FRWA B | IS | S5E0 | ||
| DB:JEN | OM:ACCON | OM:DIST | NGM:FRWAB | OM:IS | DB:S5E0 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 10.3% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 5.6% | 41.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 19.2% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 8.4% | -4.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -12.8% | 32.2% | 55.0% | 39.4% | 159.5% | -12.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.0% | -186.2% | 0.0% | -10.2% | 5.5% | 10.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.7% | -124.9% | -3.3% | -8.3% | 1.6% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.3% | -51.0% | -4.5% | -22.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.0% | -53.0% | -4.5% | -16.8% | 5.3% | 9.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.33x | 6.04x | 0.20x | 0.80x | 0.87x | 1.15x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | -11.4x | -4.3x | -4.7x | 16.3x | 11.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.6x | -10.2x | -3.9x | -4.8x | 52.1x | 23.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -11.4x | -4.3x | 16.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.9x | 16.9x | 37.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.1x | 15.9x | 16.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 68 | 68 | 68 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,025 | 1,079 | 1,133 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (282) | (282) | (282) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 743 | 797 | 851 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 64.48 | 69.16 | 73.84 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/EUR | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.79 | 6.21 | 6.63 | 4.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 38.7% | 48.8% | 58.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | JEN | ACCON | DIST | FRWA B | IS | S5E0 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,428 | 295 | 266 | 33 | 177 | 818 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 53 | 70 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 121 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| (-) Debt | (445) | 0 | (281) | (2) | (13) | (412) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7) | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,029 | 366 | 10 | 35 | 169 | 536 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 57.2 | 73.1 | 28.1 | 124.9 | 89.2 | 11.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 17.98 | 5.00 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 1.89 | 46.47 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 11.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 17.98 | 5.00 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 1.89 | 4.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | SEK | SEK | SEK | SEK | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 11.13 | |