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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.6x - 6.2x | 5.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 5.1x | 4.9x |
| Fair Value | €0.98 - €1.16 | €1.07 |
| Upside | -31.3% - -19.0% | -25.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 600585 | SHSE:600585 |
| China National Building Material Company Limited | 3323 | SEHK:3323 |
| Anhui Conch Material Technology Co., Ltd. | 2560 | SEHK:2560 |
| Huaibei GreenGold Industry Investment Co., Ltd. | 2450 | SEHK:2450 |
| Asia Cement (China) Holdings Corporation | 743 | SEHK:743 |
| Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. | RC0 | DB:RC0 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600585 | 3323 | 2560 | 2450 | 743 | RC0 | ||
| SHSE:600585 | SEHK:3323 | SEHK:2560 | SEHK:2450 | SEHK:743 | DB:RC0 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -18.6% | -14.8% | NM- | -14.1% | -32.6% | -6.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -28.1% | -23.5% | 16.2% | -16.4% | -40.7% | -8.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.9% | -12.9% | 3.8% | -28.6% | 87.5% | -6.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 21.5% | 15.1% | 10.9% | 60.5% | 22.6% | 26.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 61.5% | 15.5% | 23.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.7% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 54.0% | 13.0% | 21.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 54.0% | 18.2% | 22.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.05x | 1.06x | 0.82x | 7.88x | -0.09x | 1.38x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 8.4x | 7.2x | 14.6x | -0.5x | 6.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.3x | 22.3x | 9.6x | 29.8x | -1.5x | 11.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.5x | 7.2x | 14.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.1x | 4.3x | 4.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 5.9x | 6.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7,767 | 7,767 | 7,767 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 43,455 | 45,742 | 48,030 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (17,959) | (17,959) | (17,959) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 25,497 | 27,784 | 30,071 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,106.5 | 3,106.5 | 3,106.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.21 | 8.94 | 9.68 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.98 | 1.06 | 1.15 | 1.43 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -31.7% | -25.6% | -19.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600585 | 3323 | 2560 | 2450 | 743 | RC0 | |
| Enterprise Value | 94,846 | 195,131 | 1,982 | 1,889 | (4,242) | 55,311 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 64,449 | 38,513 | 190 | 323 | 6,263 | 6,365 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 9,581 | 35,075 | 0 | 0 | 3,739 | 1,552 | |
| (-) Debt | (29,139) | (157,592) | (933) | (1,360) | (1,235) | (21,444) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (12,402) | (76,278) | (106) | (234) | (368) | (4,432) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 127,335 | 34,848 | 1,134 | 618 | 4,156 | 37,353 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,277.1 | 7,593.0 | 579.9 | 264.0 | 1,566.9 | 3,106.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 24.13 | 4.59 | 1.96 | 2.34 | 2.65 | 12.02 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 8.41 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24.13 | 5.00 | 2.13 | 2.55 | 2.89 | 1.43 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 8.41 | |