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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5.8x - 6.4x | 6.1x |
| Fair Value | €21.46 - €24.01 | €22.74 |
| Upside | -9.8% - 0.9% | -4.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated | 9502 | TSE:9502 |
| Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. | 9531 | TSE:9531 |
| Toho Gas Co., Ltd. | 9533 | TSE:9533 |
| Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. | 8174 | TSE:8174 |
| Keiyo Gas Co., Ltd. | 9539 | TSE:9539 |
| Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. | OSA | DB:OSA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9502 | 9531 | 9533 | 8174 | 9539 | OSA | ||
| TSE:9502 | TSE:9531 | TSE:9533 | TSE:8174 | TSE:9539 | DB:OSA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 7.2% | -4.5% | 10.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 45.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 12.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | NM | NM | 15.5% | 53.3% | 22.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.6% | 15.8% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 13.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.3% | 16.2% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 9.8% | 14.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.3% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 10.3% | 14.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | NA | NA | 15.6% | 12.0% | 14.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.53x | 0.97x | 0.55x | 1.72x | 0.09x | 0.87x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 6.5x | 5.3x | 11.1x | 0.7x | 5.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 15.3x | 10.3x | 17.3x | 3.0x | 10.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.7x | 5.3x | 11.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 5.0x | 5.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 308,207 | 308,207 | 308,207 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,606,618 | 1,691,176 | 1,775,735 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (182,948) | (182,948) | (182,948) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,423,670 | 1,508,228 | 1,592,787 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 393.1 | 393.1 | 393.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,621.70 | 3,836.81 | 4,051.92 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.0 | 172.0 | 172.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 21.05 | 22.30 | 23.55 | 23.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.5% | -6.3% | -1.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9502 | 9531 | 9533 | 8174 | 9539 | OSA | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,922,721 | 2,603,544 | 367,089 | 345,027 | 10,500 | 1,792,406 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 237,439 | 156,177 | 31,940 | 13,792 | 19,069 | 155,980 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,270,640 | 497,335 | 170,200 | 2,114 | 38,429 | 543,059 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,871,125) | (1,243,623) | (132,863) | (45,781) | (26,527) | (835,136) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (69,251) | (68,830) | 0 | 0 | (3,400) | (46,851) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,490,424 | 1,944,603 | 436,366 | 315,152 | 38,071 | 1,609,458 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 755.2 | 351.3 | 95.1 | 109.3 | 32.2 | 393.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,973.50 | 5,535.00 | 4,587.00 | 2,884.50 | 1,184.00 | 4,094.33 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.03 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,973.50 | 5,535.00 | 4,587.00 | 2,884.50 | 1,184.00 | 23.80 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 172.03 | |