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BSFA 15.1%IPN -4.3%MER -3.3%

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Novartis AG

DB:NOTA

瑞士 / 保健 / 製藥

盈利能力價值

股價

95.00 EUR

公允價值

82.98 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Adjusted Earnings	12.173 B - 20.126 B	15.714 B
Discount Rate	9.0% - 7.0%	8.0%
Fair Value	€54.69 - €125.11	€82.98
Upside	-42.4% - 31.7%	-12.7%

34.7%

Normalized EBIT Margin

2.4%

Normalized CapEx as % of Revenue

12.0%

Normalized Tax Rate

Earnings Power Value

股價

95.00 EUR

公允價值

82.98 EUR

看漲

-12.7%

Adj EBIT Margin

Normalized EBIT Margin

Normalized Tax Rate

CapEx

Adj Earnings

Fair Value


Estimate Adjusted EBIT Margin

	Fiscal Year Ending						LTM
	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22	Dec-23	Dec-24		Dec-24
(USD in millions)	FY-4	FY-3	FY-2	FY-1	FY		LTM

Revenue	49,898	43,974	43,461	46,660	51,722		51,722

Adjusted EBITDA Build-up
EBT, Incl. Unusual Items	9,878	24,530	7,177	9,123	13,640		13,640
(+) Net Interest Expense	778	717	423	228	438		438
(+) Other Non Operating Exp.	(504)	(15,239)	209	224	235		235
(+) D&A	4,780	4,670	4,727	4,876	4,342		4,342
(+) Non-recurring Items		955	1,404	3,067	2,007		2,007
Adjusted EBITDA	14,932	15,633	13,940	17,518	20,662		20,662

(-) D&A	(4,780)	(4,670)	(4,727)	(4,876)	(4,342)		(4,342)

Adjusted EBIT	10,152	10,963	9,213	12,642	16,320		16,320
% of Revenue	20.3%	24.9%	21.2%	27.1%	31.6%		31.6%


	Low	Median	High

Adjusted EBIT Margin	20.3%	24.9%	31.6%

支援算式

Equity Waterfall


Equity Waterfall

	Model
(USD in millions)	Low	Mid	High		Market
Enterprise Value	135,260	196,425	287,511		222,415
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments	13,351	13,351	13,351		13,351
(+) Investments & Other	1,128	1,128	1,128		1,128
(-) Debt	(31,401)	(31,401)	(31,401)		(31,401)
(-) Other Liabilities	(80)	(80)	(80)		(80)
(-) Preferred Stock	0	0	0		0
(-) Other	0	0	0		0
Value of Common Equity	118,258	179,423	270,509		205,413
(/) Shares Outstanding	1,897.6	1,897.6	1,897.6		1,897.6
Implied Stock Price (USD)	62.32	94.55	142.55		108.25
FX Rate: USD/EUR	1.14	1.14	1.14		1.14
Implied Stock Price (EUR)	54.69	82.98	125.11		95.00

Upside / (Downside)	-42.43%	-12.65%	31.69%


Stock Price	95.00
Stock Price Close	95.00
Restatment Type	Original
Reporting Currency	USD
Trading Currency	EUR
FX Rate: USD/EUR	1.14
Market Cap	184,770.2
Shares Outstanding	1,897.6
Share Exchange Ratio	1.0
Liquid Long-term Investments	0

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