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BSFA 15.1%IPN -4.3%MER -3.3%

觀察名單觀點 ProPicks AI 篩選器數據瀏覽圖表已儲存工作 WarrenAI

Novartis AG

DB:NOTA

瑞士 / 保健 / 製藥

5 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

95.00 EUR

公允價值

114.63 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	8.5% - 7.5%	8.0%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	4.3x - 4.7x	4.5x
Fair Value	€108.34 - €121.17	€114.63
Upside	14.0% - 27.5%	20.7%

2.3%

Revenue 5y CAGR

42.5%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

4.0%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

95.00 EUR

公允價值

114.63 EUR

看漲

20.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(USD in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

Revenue	51,722	52,951	54,076	55,653	57,439	58,049
% Growth	10.8%	2.4%	2.1%	2.9%	3.2%	1.1%

EBITDA	20,662	21,945	22,355	23,491	24,866	25,740
% of Revenue	39.9%	41.4%	41.3%	42.2%	43.3%	44.3%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(USD in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

EBITDA		21,945	22,355	23,491	24,866	25,740
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1,195)	(1,610)	(1,499)	(1,757)	(2,475)

EBIT		20,750	20,745	21,992	23,109	23,265
Pro forma Taxes		(2,490)	(2,489)	(2,639)	(2,773)	(2,792)
NOPAT	14,362	18,260	18,256	19,353	20,336	20,473

Capital Expenditures	(1,366)	(1,404)	(1,403)	(1,429)	(1,490)	(1,422)
NWC Investment	366	89	81	114	129	44
(+) D&A	4,342	1,195	1,610	1,499	1,757	2,475

Free Cash Flow	17,704	18,140	18,544	19,537	20,732	21,570
% Growth		2%	2%	5%	6%	4%

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