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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 13.7x - 15.1x | 14.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 9.6x - 10.6x | 10.1x |
| Fair Value | €53.89 - €58.46 | €56.18 |
| Upside | 7.4% - 16.5% | 11.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Autohome Inc. | 2518 | SEHK:2518 |
| Meitu, Inc. | 1357 | SEHK:1357 |
| Baidu, Inc. | 9888 | SEHK:9888 |
| Bilibili Inc. | 9626 | SEHK:9626 |
| Hello Group Inc. | MOMO | NasdaqGS:MOMO |
| Tencent Holdings Limited | NNND | DB:NNND |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2518 | 1357 | 9888 | 9626 | MOMO | NNND | ||
| SEHK:2518 | SEHK:1357 | SEHK:9888 | SEHK:9626 | NasdaqGS:MOMO | DB:NNND | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -17.9% | NM- | 6.8% | NM- | -16.5% | 15.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -15.8% | NM- | 9.9% | NM- | -11.2% | 16.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.7% | 81.8% | -2.8% | 142.1% | -33.3% | 25.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 27.3% | 0.9% | 26.5% | -13.6% | 17.8% | 28.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 19.2% | 11.9% | 27.5% | -10.4% | 19.9% | 30.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 17.4% | 27.0% | 3.7% | 15.1% | 34.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.7% | 17.4% | 27.0% | 3.7% | 15.1% | 34.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.02x | 5.04x | 0.21x | 1.23x | 0.11x | 4.56x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.1x | 28.9x | 0.8x | 33.6x | 0.7x | 13.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.1x | 33.8x | 1.3x | -24.6x | 0.8x | 14.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.1x | 0.8x | 33.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 17.4x | 29.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.7x | 14.4x | 15.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 230,092 | 230,092 | 230,092 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,148,612 | 3,314,328 | 3,480,045 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 788,150 | 788,150 | 788,150 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,936,762 | 4,102,478 | 4,268,195 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9,061.3 | 9,061.3 | 9,061.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 434.46 | 452.75 | 471.04 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 52.53 | 54.74 | 56.96 | 50.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.6% | 9.1% | 13.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2518 | 1357 | 9888 | 9626 | MOMO | NNND | |
| Enterprise Value | (487) | 16,892 | 29,665 | 35,654 | 834 | 2,973,750 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 23,316 | 2,956 | 127,743 | 16,683 | 6,149 | 343,159 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 339 | 1,456 | 140,256 | 3,912 | 3,885 | 883,451 | |
| (-) Debt | (23) | (318) | (79,324) | (5,147) | (4,581) | (358,112) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,249) | (6) | (19,992) | 4 | 0 | (80,348) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 21,895 | 20,980 | 198,348 | 51,106 | 6,287 | 3,761,900 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 477.2 | 4,559.0 | 2,664.5 | 416.8 | 164.1 | 9,061.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 45.88 | 4.60 | 74.44 | 122.63 | 38.32 | 415.16 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 7.30 | 8.27 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 48.75 | 4.89 | 79.10 | 130.30 | 5.25 | 50.20 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 7.30 | 8.27 | |