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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.6x - 10.6x | 10.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Fair Value | €19.21 - €22.42 | €20.82 |
| Upside | -23.5% - -10.7% | -17.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Antofagasta plc | ANTO | LSE:ANTO |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| ArcelorMittal S.A. | 0RP9 | LSE:0RP9 |
| Nucor Corporation | 0K9L | LSE:0K9L |
| Anglo American plc | NGL0 | DB:NGL0 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ANTO | RIO | HOC | 0RP9 | 0K9L | NGL0 | ||
| LSE:ANTO | LSE:RIO | LSE:HOC | LSE:0RP9 | LSE:0K9L | DB:NGL0 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.6% | -1.1% | 14.9% | 30.9% | 9.0% | -4.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -22.1% | -22.0% | 6.3% | -40.9% | -31.5% | -34.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -8.4% | -11.7% | 173.1% | 3.8% | -53.8% | -22.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 30.9% | 34.0% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 27.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 27.9% | 27.5% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 17.9% | 20.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 24.5% | 26.1% | 23.8% | 5.5% | 9.7% | 18.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.5% | 24.2% | 23.8% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 15.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.70x | 2.22x | 2.52x | 0.41x | 1.21x | 1.72x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.3x | 6.5x | 6.2x | 5.3x | 10.4x | 6.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.2x | 9.2x | 10.6x | 11.1x | 17.4x | 10.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.2x | 11.1x | 19.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 3.6x | 6.4x | 10.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 10.1x | 10.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 4,183 | 4,183 | 4,183 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 40,294 | 42,415 | 44,535 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (14,301) | (14,301) | (14,301) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 25,993 | 28,114 | 30,234 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,079.1 | 1,079.1 | 1,079.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 24.09 | 26.05 | 28.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.62 | 22.30 | 23.98 | 25.10 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.9% | -11.2% | -4.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ANTO | RIO | HOC | 0RP9 | 0K9L | NGL0 | |
| Enterprise Value | 30,458 | 113,317 | 2,371 | 25,096 | 37,190 | 45,944 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,316 | 9,334 | 97 | 5,358 | 2,483 | 8,139 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,788 | 5,436 | 16 | 11,010 | 0 | 791 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,945) | (23,640) | (319) | (13,732) | (6,881) | (16,991) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,492) | (3,764) | (76) | (2,092) | (1,103) | (6,240) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 27,125 | 100,683 | 2,089 | 25,640 | 31,689 | 31,643 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 985.9 | 1,625.1 | 514.5 | 760.5 | 230.8 | 1,079.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 27.51 | 61.96 | 4.06 | 33.71 | 137.33 | 29.32 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.37 | 45.87 | 3.01 | 28.86 | 137.33 | 25.10 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |