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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 8.3x | 7.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
| Fair Value | €41.21 - €47.70 | €44.46 |
| Upside | -17.3% - -4.3% | -10.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Methanex Corporation | MX | TSX:MX |
| ICL Group Ltd | ICL | NYSE:ICL |
| The Mosaic Company | MOS * | BMV:MOS* |
| American Vanguard Corporation | AVD | NYSE:AVD |
| Quaker Chemical Corporation | KWR | NYSE:KWR |
| Nutrien Ltd. | N7T | DB:N7T |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| MX | ICL | MOS * | AVD | KWR | N7T | ||
| TSX:MX | NYSE:ICL | BMV:MOS* | NYSE:AVD | NYSE:KWR | DB:N7T | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.3% | 2.2% | 5.8% | -5.6% | 11.8% | 4.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -11.7% | -8.3% | -20.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | -11.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.1% | -21.3% | -24.8% | -50.0% | -6.1% | -15.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.6% | 23.6% | 21.0% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 21.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.1% | 21.6% | 17.1% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 19.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.8% | 18.7% | 15.8% | 8.1% | 15.4% | 18.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.8% | 18.7% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 15.4% | 18.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.28x | 1.59x | 1.12x | 0.56x | 1.26x | 1.58x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 8.5x | 7.1x | 15.6x | 8.2x | 8.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.1x | 13.8x | 20.0x | -109.5x | 11.6x | 15.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 8.2x | 15.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 8.8x | 12.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 7.9x | 8.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 4,512 | 4,512 | 4,512 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 33,941 | 35,727 | 37,514 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,291) | (11,291) | (11,291) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 22,650 | 24,436 | 26,223 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 488.6 | 488.6 | 488.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 46.36 | 50.02 | 53.67 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 41.01 | 44.24 | 47.47 | 49.86 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.8% | -11.3% | -4.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MX | ICL | MOS * | AVD | KWR | N7T | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,748 | 10,890 | 12,428 | 308 | 2,279 | 38,831 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 892 | 442 | 273 | 12 | 189 | 853 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 101 | 3 | 1,533 | 4 | 100 | 698 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,233) | (2,310) | (4,450) | (201) | (738) | (12,807) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (288) | (263) | (132) | 0 | (1) | (35) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,220 | 8,762 | 9,652 | 122 | 1,829 | 27,540 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 67.4 | 1,290.5 | 317.2 | 28.8 | 17.7 | 488.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 32.94 | 6.79 | 30.43 | 4.25 | 103.46 | 56.37 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 45.49 | 6.79 | 596.46 | 4.25 | 103.46 | 49.86 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | USD | MXN | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.13 | |