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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8.5x - 9.4x | 9.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 14.6x - 16.1x | 15.4x |
| Fair Value | €3.59 - €5.23 | €4.41 |
| Upside | -24.9% - 9.5% | -7.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Deufol SE | DE10 | HMSE:DE10 |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | XTRA:DHL |
| Österreichische Post AG | O3P | XTRA:O3P |
| MaltaPost p.l.c. | MTP | MTSE:MTP |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | 5CI | DB:5CI |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | DB:MLL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DE10 | DHL | O3P | MTP | 5CI | MLL | ||
| HMSE:DE10 | XTRA:DHL | XTRA:O3P | MTSE:MTP | DB:5CI | DB:MLL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.1% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 9.9% | -6.8% | 4.4% | 23.9% | 9.1% | 26.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -7.2% | 33.1% | 1.4% | 43.5% | 0.7% | 102.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 5.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 5.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.42x | 0.81x | 0.84x | 0.62x | 0.11x | 0.54x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 8.9x | 9.1x | 3.6x | 3.6x | 9.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.0x | 12.7x | 15.7x | 4.8x | 4.6x | 20.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 7.5x | 9.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 18.6x | 232.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.5x | 9.0x | 9.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 14 | 14 | 14 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 123 | 129 | 136 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (96) | (96) | (96) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 27 | 33 | 40 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.40 | 4.21 | 5.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.40 | 4.21 | 5.02 | 4.78 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -28.9% | -12.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DE10 | DHL | O3P | MTP | 5CI | MLL | |
| Enterprise Value | 131 | 67,944 | 2,623 | 27 | 1,461 | 134 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 13 | 3,766 | 119 | 6 | 2,368 | 17 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3 | 774 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (95) | (25,881) | (745) | (3) | (64) | (113) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3) | (438) | 0 | (1) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 48 | 46,165 | 1,996 | 36 | 3,808 | 38 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8.5 | 1,130.7 | 67.6 | 80.3 | 132.0 | 8.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.70 | 40.83 | 29.55 | 0.44 | 28.84 | 4.78 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.70 | 40.83 | 29.55 | 0.44 | 28.84 | 4.78 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |