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Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp

DB:M3C

日本 / 材料 / 化學品

5 年 DCF EBITDA 退出價

股價

4.43 EUR

公允價值

3.56 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	11.3% - 10.3%	10.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	4.1x - 6.1x	5.1x
Fair Value	€1.45 - €5.76	€3.56
Upside	-67.7% - 28.1%	-20.8%

-0.2%

Revenue 5y CAGR

15.0%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

-8.2%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

股價

4.43 EUR

公允價值

3.56 EUR

看漲

-20.8%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(JPY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Mar-25	Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30

Revenue	4,407,405	3,739,435	3,881,500	3,970,600	4,202,550	4,353,800
% Growth	0.5%	-15.2%	3.8%	2.3%	5.8%	3.6%

EBITDA	579,140	498,200	549,550	573,600	679,700	725,650
% of Revenue	13.1%	13.3%	14.2%	14.4%	16.2%	16.7%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(JPY in millions)		Mar-26	Mar-27	Mar-28	Mar-29	Mar-30

EBITDA		498,200	549,550	573,600	679,700	725,650
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(294,200)	(274,550)	(269,100)	(316,200)	(332,700)

EBIT		204,000	275,000	304,500	363,500	392,950
Pro forma Taxes		(55,080)	(74,250)	(82,215)	(98,145)	(106,097)
NOPAT	221,341	148,920	200,750	222,285	265,355	286,854

Capital Expenditures	(314,533)	(299,533)	(359,443)	(364,842)	(400,000)	(475,000)
NWC Investment	(3,690)	122,089	(25,966)	(16,285)	(42,395)	(27,645)
(+) D&A	275,933	294,200	274,550	269,100	316,200	332,700

Free Cash Flow	179,051	265,676	89,891	110,258	139,160	116,909
% Growth		48%	-66%	23%	26%	-16%

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