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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 24.2x - 26.7x | 25.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 13.2x - 14.6x | 13.9x |
| Fair Value | €0.24 - €0.31 | €0.28 |
| Upside | -23.6% - -1.3% | -12.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Oji Holdings Corporation | 3861 | TSE:3861 |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited | 2689 | SEHK:2689 |
| Greenheart Group Limited | 94 | SEHK:94 |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
| International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
| Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited | LMP | DB:LMP |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 3861 | 2689 | 94 | PKG | IP | LMP | ||
| TSE:3861 | SEHK:2689 | SEHK:94 | NYSE:PKG | NYSE:IP | DB:LMP | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -8.6% | -14.1% | NM- | 1.5% | -10.7% | -18.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -17.4% | -31.5% | NM- | -3.9% | -16.6% | -28.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -13.0% | 749.5% | -16.5% | 22.4% | 14.6% | -5.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.6% | 6.5% | -61.1% | 15.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.3% | -3.1% | -81.7% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 4.6% | -166.9% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NA | 5.0% | -166.9% | 14.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.78x | 1.31x | 0.71x | 2.40x | 1.61x | 1.28x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 12.3x | -0.5x | 11.4x | 14.1x | 21.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 25.6x | 26.2x | -0.4x | 16.3x | 31.8x | 25.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -0.4x | 25.6x | 31.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.3x | 24.2x | 52.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 24.2x | 25.5x | 26.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,281 | 1,281 | 1,281 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 30,972 | 32,602 | 34,232 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (20,131) | (20,131) | (20,131) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 10,842 | 12,472 | 14,102 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,149.2 | 5,149.2 | 5,149.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.11 | 2.42 | 2.74 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.32 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -27.0% | -16.1% | -5.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 3861 | 2689 | 94 | PKG | IP | LMP | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,453,278 | 82,829 | 37 | 20,767 | 35,261 | 34,987 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 69,104 | 11,861 | 20 | 880 | 1,135 | 1,657 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 188,300 | 183 | 1 | 76 | 0 | 204 | |
| (-) Debt | (948,666) | (70,135) | (438) | (2,811) | (10,641) | (21,983) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (29,763) | (492) | 511 | 0 | 0 | (9) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 732,253 | 24,245 | 131 | 18,912 | 25,755 | 14,856 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 917.4 | 4,692.2 | 2,782.5 | 89.4 | 528.0 | 5,149.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 798.20 | 5.17 | 0.05 | 211.62 | 48.78 | 2.89 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.07 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 798.20 | 5.63 | 0.05 | 211.62 | 48.78 | 0.32 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | HKD | HKD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.07 | |