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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 13.5x - 14.9x | 14.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 6.2x - 6.9x | 6.5x |
| Fair Value | €0.87 - €1.49 | €1.18 |
| Upside | -52.0% - -17.3% | -34.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Antero Resources Corporation | AR | NYSE:AR |
| Comstock Resources, Inc. | CRK | NYSE:CRK |
| Talos Energy Inc. | TALO | NYSE:TALO |
| CNX Resources Corporation | CNX | NYSE:CNX |
| Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE | NYSEAM:GTE |
| Kosmos Energy Ltd. | KOS1 | DB:KOS1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AR | CRK | TALO | CNX | GTE | KOS1 | ||
| NYSE:AR | NYSE:CRK | NYSE:TALO | NYSE:CNX | NYSEAM:GTE | DB:KOS1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -6.0% | -54.1% | 3.0% | 19.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -39.3% | NM- | 572.5% | NM- | 5.3% | 73.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 259.6% | 2224.4% | 156.6% | -63.4% | -57.3% | -49.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.4% | 30.2% | 6.9% | 21.2% | 17.3% | 8.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 153.1% | 27.3% | 27.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.1% | -13.4% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 19.1% | 26.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 15.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.84x | 4.88x | 1.20x | 3.76x | 1.39x | 2.42x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.3x | 9.1x | 1.7x | 8.3x | 2.6x | 5.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 26.5x | 53.0x | 12.4x | 23.2x | 11.6x | 16.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 11.6x | 23.2x | 53.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -21.1x | 6.0x | 30.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 14.2x | 14.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 235 | 235 | 235 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,163 | 3,330 | 3,496 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,816) | (2,816) | (2,816) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 347 | 514 | 680 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 478.0 | 478.0 | 478.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.73 | 1.07 | 1.42 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.63 | 0.93 | 1.23 | 1.81 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -65.3% | -48.6% | -32.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AR | CRK | TALO | CNX | GTE | KOS1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,823 | 8,080 | 2,460 | 6,819 | 865 | 3,816 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 26 | 203 | 3 | 61 | 50 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 249 | 0 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,492) | (3,106) | (1,367) | (2,734) | (787) | (2,866) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (179) | (191) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 10,402 | 4,809 | 1,407 | 4,088 | 139 | 1,000 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 308.9 | 293.1 | 177.1 | 141.4 | 35.3 | 478.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 33.67 | 16.41 | 7.94 | 28.91 | 3.94 | 2.09 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 33.67 | 16.41 | 7.94 | 28.91 | 3.94 | 1.81 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | |