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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 16.5x - 18.2x | 17.4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.0x - 12.2x | 11.6x |
| Fair Value | €73.46 - €81.80 | €77.63 |
| Upside | -17.2% - -7.8% | -12.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| KION GROUP AG | KGX | XTRA:KGX |
| Cummins Inc. | CUM | DB:CUM |
| Trinity Industries, Inc. | TTA | DB:TTA |
| Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1A7 | DB:1A7 |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | WB2 | DB:WB2 |
| Knorr-Bremse AG | KBX | DB:KBX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| KGX | CUM | TTA | 1A7 | WB2 | KBX | ||
| XTRA:KGX | DB:CUM | DB:TTA | DB:1A7 | DB:WB2 | DB:KBX | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.8% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 17.7% | -5.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.7% | 19.9% | 35.3% | 14.4% | 23.6% | -3.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -25.0% | 19.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 19.2% | -11.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 29.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 30.5% | 13.6% | 10.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.7% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 31.5% | 16.0% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.6% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 31.7% | 16.5% | 9.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.23x | 1.62x | 2.79x | 2.83x | 3.84x | 1.91x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 10.9x | 11.3x | 8.0x | 18.5x | 15.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 26.6x | 13.8x | 19.3x | 8.9x | 23.3x | 19.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 19.3x | 26.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 12.3x | 14.3x | 21.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 16.5x | 17.4x | 18.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 773 | 773 | 773 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,755 | 13,426 | 14,098 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (929) | (929) | (929) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,826 | 12,497 | 13,169 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 161.2 | 161.2 | 161.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 73.36 | 77.53 | 81.69 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 73.36 | 77.53 | 81.69 | 88.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -17.3% | -12.6% | -7.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | KGX | CUM | TTA | 1A7 | WB2 | KBX | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,794 | 54,992 | 7,911 | 8,960 | 38,820 | 15,227 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 750 | 2,158 | 117 | 757 | 690 | 2,260 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 111 | 1,990 | 21 | 22 | 0 | 35 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,778) | (8,115) | (5,637) | (2,419) | (4,312) | (3,137) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (18) | (1,047) | (247) | 0 | (46) | (87) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,858 | 49,978 | 2,166 | 7,320 | 35,152 | 14,298 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 131.1 | 137.8 | 81.6 | 84.3 | 171.1 | 161.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 52.30 | 362.80 | 26.54 | 86.89 | 205.41 | 88.70 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 52.30 | 309.00 | 22.60 | 74.00 | 174.95 | 88.70 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |