Knorr Bremse AG

DB:KBX

德國 / 工業 / 機械

綜觀

股息

10 年 DCF 收入退出價

股價

74.60 EUR

公允價值

86.47 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.8% - 8.8%	9.3%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	1.8x - 2.0x	1.9x
Fair Value	€80.76 - €92.57	€86.47
Upside	0.6% - 15.3%	7.7%

3.3%

Revenue 10y CAGR

18.0%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

6.2%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股價

74.60 EUR

公允價值

86.47 EUR

看漲

7.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(EUR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	7,996	8,191	8,616	9,003	9,578	10,009	10,209	10,413	10,622	10,834	11,051
% Growth	-0.5%	2.4%	5.2%	4.5%	6.4%	4.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	1,016	1,445	1,587	1,759	1,860	1,753	1,788	1,824	1,860	1,898	1,935
% of Revenue	12.7%	17.6%	18.4%	19.5%	19.4%	17.5%	17.5%	17.5%	17.5%	17.5%	17.5%

支援算式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		1,445	1,587	1,759	1,860	1,753	1,788	1,824	1,860	1,898	1,935
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(381)	(385)	(423)	(545)	(392)	(400)	(408)	(416)	(424)	(433)

EBIT		1,065	1,202	1,336	1,315	1,361	1,388	1,416	1,444	1,473	1,503
Pro forma Taxes		(287)	(325)	(361)	(355)	(367)	(375)	(382)	(390)	(398)	(406)
NOPAT	591	777	877	975	960	994	1,013	1,034	1,054	1,075	1,097

Capital Expenditures	(228)	(420)	(445)	(399)	(492)	(464)	(452)	(461)	(459)	(457)	(459)
NWC Investment	5	(22)	(47)	(43)	(64)	(48)	(22)	(23)	(23)	(24)	(24)
(+) D&A	207	381	385	423	545	392	400	408	416	424	433

Free Cash Flow	574	716	770	956	949	874	939	958	989	1,019	1,047
% Growth			7%	24%	-1%	-8%	7%	2%	3%	3%	3%

載入錯誤

Knorr Bremse AG

DB:KBX

德國 / 工業 / 機械

10 年 DCF 收入退出價