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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.5x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 6.6x | 6.3x |
| Fair Value | €3.09 - €4.04 | €3.56 |
| Upside | -26.5% - -3.9% | -15.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation | 386 | SEHK:386 |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Shell plc | SHELL | ENXTAM:SHELL |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | PINC:TTFN.F |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | JHJ | DB:JHJ |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 530965 | 386 | 857 | SHELL | TTFN.F | JHJ | ||
| BSE:530965 | SEHK:386 | SEHK:857 | ENXTAM:SHELL | PINC:TTFN.F | DB:JHJ | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.7% | -0.8% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 0.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 24.9% | -6.4% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 6.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -58.1% | -13.2% | -2.3% | -8.7% | -15.5% | -10.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.2% | 6.0% | 14.6% | 17.1% | 19.6% | 5.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 18.3% | 20.6% | 4.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.9% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 18.7% | 19.5% | 5.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.7% | 5.1% | 16.3% | 18.7% | 19.5% | 5.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.45x | 0.27x | 0.48x | 0.75x | 0.62x | 0.34x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 5.3x | 3.0x | 4.0x | 3.2x | 6.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.5x | 14.3x | 5.7x | 6.4x | 4.7x | 14.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 4.0x | 9.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 6.1x | 15.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 5.8x | 6.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 666,465 | 666,465 | 666,465 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,686,585 | 3,880,616 | 4,074,646 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,608,083) | (2,608,083) | (2,608,083) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,078,502 | 1,272,533 | 1,466,563 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,689.7 | 2,689.7 | 2,689.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 400.97 | 473.11 | 545.25 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 162.6 | 162.6 | 162.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.47 | 2.91 | 3.35 | 4.20 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.3% | -30.7% | -20.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 530965 | 386 | 857 | SHELL | TTFN.F | JHJ | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,421,885 | 855,924 | 1,563,553 | 211,973 | 115,781 | 4,445,130 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 111,222 | 160,586 | 227,586 | 39,110 | 32,351 | 519,273 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 253,297 | 295,628 | 25,700 | 37,829 | 609,044 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,634,009) | (447,432) | (355,474) | (77,142) | (54,221) | (3,271,348) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (155,678) | (194,491) | (1,861) | (2,397) | (465,052) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,899,098 | 666,697 | 1,536,802 | 197,780 | 129,343 | 1,837,047 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 13,771.6 | 179,319.0 | 276,261.4 | 6,021.0 | 2,225.5 | 2,689.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 137.90 | 3.72 | 5.56 | 32.85 | 58.12 | 682.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 162.62 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 137.90 | 3.97 | 5.94 | 28.90 | 58.12 | 4.20 | |
| Trading Currency | INR | HKD | HKD | EUR | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 162.62 | |