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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 73.4x - 81.1x | 77.2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.1x - 10.1x | 9.6x |
Fair Value | €3.29 - €4.04 | €3.67 |
Upside | -40.8% - -27.2% | -34.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | 5020 | TSE:5020 |
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited | 500104 | BSE:500104 |
Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | OTCPK:TTFN.F |
PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | I7B | DB:I7B |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
5020 | 500104 | 530965 | TTFN.F | 857 | I7B | ||
TSE:5020 | BSE:500104 | BSE:530965 | OTCPK:TTFN.F | SEHK:857 | DB:I7B | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 28.0% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 15.0% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | -27.6% | 16.3% | -16.4% | 2.1% | 14.5% | -28.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -95.3% | 36.1% | -64.5% | -27.1% | -1.2% | -95.6% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 3.1% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 2.9% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 4.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 1.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 12.0% | 8.6% | NA | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.31x | 0.36x | 0.38x | 0.72x | 0.53x | 0.23x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.2x | 7.1x | 7.6x | 3.8x | 3.2x | 16.3x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 189.7x | 9.5x | 13.4x | 6.0x | 6.1x | 107.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.0x | 9.5x | 189.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -25.3x | 4.9x | 12.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 73.4x | 77.2x | 81.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 18,660 | 18,660 | 18,660 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,369,185 | 1,441,248 | 1,513,310 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (820,715) | (820,715) | (820,715) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 548,470 | 620,533 | 692,595 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | 1,224.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 447.86 | 506.71 | 565.55 | ||||
FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 172.8 | 172.8 | 172.8 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.59 | 2.93 | 3.27 | 5.55 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -53.3% | -47.2% | -41.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 5020 | 500104 | 530965 | TTFN.F | 857 | I7B | |
Enterprise Value | 3,833,765 | 1,524,014 | 2,894,948 | 134,735 | 1,869,540 | 1,995,000 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 853,711 | 34,187 | 65,706 | 25,607 | 316,530 | 126,201 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 628,691 | 0 | 568,496 | 41,524 | 300,860 | 297,977 | |
(-) Debt | (2,712,177) | (705,582) | (1,522,706) | (63,082) | (364,748) | (1,220,643) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (341,099) | 0 | (45,373) | (2,360) | (199,413) | (24,250) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,262,891 | 852,618 | 1,961,070 | 136,424 | 1,922,769 | 1,174,285 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.1 | 2,127.8 | 13,771.6 | 2,193.3 | 273,222.9 | 1,224.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 841.20 | 400.70 | 142.40 | 62.20 | 7.04 | 958.88 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 172.77 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 841.20 | 400.70 | 142.40 | 62.20 | 7.70 | 5.55 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | INR | INR | USD | HKD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 172.77 |