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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.9x - 14.3x | 13.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.2x - 9.1x | 8.6x |
| Fair Value | €44.10 - €49.79 | €46.95 |
| Upside | 26.8% - 43.2% | 35.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Alcoa Corporation | AA | NYSE:AA |
| Southern Copper Corporation | SCCO | NYSE:SCCO |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc | AU | NYSE:AU |
| Nickel Industries Limited | NICM.F | OTCPK:NICM.F |
| Anglo American plc | AAUK.F | OTCPK:AAUK.F |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | FPMB | DB:FPMB |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AA | SCCO | AU | NICM.F | AAUK.F | FPMB | ||
| NYSE:AA | NYSE:SCCO | NYSE:AU | OTCPK:NICM.F | OTCPK:AAUK.F | DB:FPMB | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.3% | 15.1% | 20.8% | -1.0% | -4.8% | 62.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -23.7% | -2.9% | 24.6% | -8.0% | -34.2% | -6.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1637.2% | 24.2% | 216.0% | -50.4% | -22.6% | -0.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.1% | 46.5% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 27.7% | 28.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -0.7% | 42.4% | 13.0% | 16.2% | 20.4% | 27.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.8% | 48.6% | 27.1% | 8.6% | 18.0% | 27.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.6% | 49.5% | 36.7% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 26.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 6.73x | 4.05x | 1.25x | 1.70x | 2.86x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 11.8x | 8.3x | 7.8x | 6.5x | 7.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 13.6x | 11.0x | 14.5x | 10.8x | 10.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 4.2x | 11.0x | 14.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 10.1x | 42.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 13.6x | 14.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 6,928 | 6,928 | 6,928 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 89,717 | 94,439 | 99,161 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (16,549) | (16,549) | (16,549) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 73,168 | 77,890 | 82,612 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,436.2 | 1,436.2 | 1,436.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 50.95 | 54.23 | 57.52 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 43.66 | 46.48 | 49.30 | 34.78 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 25.6% | 33.7% | 41.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AA | SCCO | AU | NICM.F | AAUK.F | FPMB | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,878 | 79,829 | 30,996 | 2,093 | 40,318 | 74,827 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,514 | 4,010 | 2,001 | 211 | 8,139 | 4,490 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,016 | 121 | 607 | 1,230 | 791 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,657) | (7,449) | (2,312) | (1,055) | (16,991) | (9,251) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (100) | (69) | (1,875) | (432) | (6,240) | (11,788) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,651 | 76,443 | 29,417 | 2,047 | 26,017 | 58,278 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 258.9 | 804.1 | 504.7 | 4,340.9 | 957.2 | 1,436.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 29.55 | 95.07 | 58.28 | 0.47 | 27.18 | 40.58 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 29.55 | 95.07 | 58.28 | 0.47 | 27.18 | 34.78 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | |