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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.1x - 10.1x | 9.6x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x - 8.8x | 8.3x |
Fair Value | €30.83 - €34.07 | €32.45 |
Upside | -2.6% - 7.6% | 2.5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Innospec Inc. | OCT | DB:OCT |
Quaker Chemical Corporation | QUC | DB:QUC |
Nabaltec AG | NTG | XTRA:NTG |
Symrise AG | SY1 | XTRA:SY1 |
Evonik Industries AG | EVK | XTRA:EVK |
Fuchs SE | FPE | DB:FPE |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
OCT | QUC | NTG | SY1 | EVK | FPE | ||
DB:OCT | DB:QUC | XTRA:NTG | XTRA:SY1 | XTRA:EVK | DB:FPE | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -17.9% | 11.8% | 1.1% | 6.7% | -3.1% | 5.9% | |
3Y CAGR | -24.8% | 2.4% | -2.3% | 9.1% | -7.7% | 6.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -74.2% | -13.3% | 2.1% | 13.0% | -16.9% | 0.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 10.3% | 14.5% | 17.0% | 18.8% | 12.9% | 14.6% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 10.6% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 16.8% | 11.8% | 14.0% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 4.1% | 15.4% | 16.5% | 19.4% | 11.2% | 14.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 3.3% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 20.0% | 11.3% | 14.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.03x | 1.65x | 0.47x | 2.54x | 0.78x | 1.32x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 31.6x | 11.4x | 3.0x | 12.7x | 6.9x | 9.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 124.1x | 16.8x | 4.6x | 16.9x | 14.1x | 11.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 11.4x | 31.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.2x | 10.0x | 16.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 516 | 516 | 516 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,716 | 4,964 | 5,213 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,725 | 4,973 | 5,222 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 151.6 | 151.6 | 151.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 31.17 | 32.81 | 34.45 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 31.17 | 32.81 | 34.45 | 31.65 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -1.5% | 3.7% | 8.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | OCT | QUC | NTG | SY1 | EVK | FPE | |
Enterprise Value | 1,802 | 3,005 | 98 | 12,753 | 11,493 | 4,788 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 267 | 202 | 94 | 370 | 379 | 134 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 105 | 15 | 599 | 500 | 71 | |
(-) Debt | (49) | (975) | (91) | (2,416) | (4,529) | (193) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6) | (3) | 0 | (23) | (65) | (3) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,014 | 2,334 | 115 | 11,282 | 7,778 | 4,797 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 24.8 | 17.4 | 8.8 | 139.8 | 466.0 | 151.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 81.09 | 134.17 | 13.05 | 80.72 | 16.69 | 31.65 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 69.50 | 115.00 | 13.05 | 80.72 | 16.69 | 31.65 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |